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Expectations of interest rate cuts coupled with improved risk sentiment put the dollar under pressure

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Interest rate cut expectations coupled with improved risk sentiment, the US dollar is under pressure and falling." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

In Asian trading on Thursday, the U.S. dollar index hovered at 98.53. The main reason for the pressure on the U.S. dollar came from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The positive sentiment in European and U.S. stock markets also led to capital outflows from the U.S. dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is currently testing the key retracement level, and there is no immediate support before the 50-day moving average of 98.025. Market sentiment has clearly turned negative. Unless the dollar can find support at the 50-day moving average and rebound, the possibility of a further pullback to 97.412 remains. Especially in the context of continued consolidation of interest rate cut expectations and high risk appetite, this correction trend is more likely to form.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar: As of press time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.51. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.32% to 98.72, falling for the second consecutive trading day. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that U.S. economic activity has barely changed recently, and employment is basically stable. However, there are signs of weakness such as increased layoffs and low- and middle-income households cutting spending. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued its downward trend and fell below the key Fibonacci support level of 98.714. There are two reasons behind this: First, traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have continued to strengthen, and second, the rebound in global risk sentiment has boosted demand for high-risk currencies. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is currently testing the key retracement level, and there is no immediate support before the 50-day moving average of 98.025. Market sentiment has clearly turned negative. Unless the dollar can find support at the 50-day moving average and rebound, the possibility of a further pullback to 97.412 remains. Especially in the context of continued consolidation of interest rate cut expectations and high risk appetite, this correction trendPotential is easier to form.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1664, and the euro has exceeded the 1.1600 mark for the second consecutive day, as the U.S. dollar is under pressure from expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the escalation of the U.S.-China trade war. Although the political turmoil in France has begun to ease, the euro still lacks obvious positive factors. At the same time, the recent performance of EUR/USD is www.xmmen.comparable to the rebound momentum seen after the euro zone announced a number of policies, which further enhances our strategic caution on the euro. The EUR/USD technical outlook has improved, but the pair remains neutral with a bearish bias, continuing to trade above and below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1644. The relative strength index (RSI) fell below the neutral 50 level on Friday, indicating that downside momentum is building. Immediate support is at 1.1600, followed by 1.1550 and 1.1500. A break below these levels would expose the August 1 cycle low around 1.1391. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.1650 and 1.1700. A break of the latter will open the path to 1.1800 and the July 1 high of 1.1830.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3422. GBP/USD found space at the highs on Wednesday. After a short-term decline, it climbed back to the 1.3400 level after the currency pair briefly challenged the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 1.3290. A slew of moderately important UK economic data is due for release on Thursday, but the U.S. data calendar remains weak as the flow of key data releases is restricted due to the U.S. government shutdown. Technically, the technical view for GBP/USD suggests that the current rise may be short-lived unless buyers move above 1.3400 on a daily basis. This could pave the way for a test of the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3424, followed by a challenge at the 50-day SMA at 1.3474. Still, momentum remains bearish, as shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which sits below the neutral level of 50. Conversely, if GBP/USD extends losses below the October 14 low of 1.3248, further downside targets the 200-day SMA of 1.3183.

Foreign exchange market news summary

1. Australia's unemployment rate soared to a new high in nearly four years

According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from a revised 4.3% in August to 4.5% in September.. "This is the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment rate since November 2021," said Sean Kerik, director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of unemployed people increased by 34,000 in September. Employment also increased, by 15,000 over the same period. "As a result of these gains, the employment participation rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 67.0%, although this was down from the record high of 67.2% set at the beginning of the year," Crick said. The employment-to-population ratio remained steady at 64.0%.

2. U.S. officials: No evidence of widespread underreporting of imported home appliances

U.S. federal officials said they have found no evidence of widespread underreporting of imported home appliances. The www.xmmen.comments www.xmmen.come after Michigan-based appliance maker Whirlpool last month accused rivals of potentially circumventing tariffs. Whirlpool based its suspicions on import data. Since June, the declared tariff value of many home appliances has dropped significantly. For example, the average declared value of washing machines from South Korea was US$838 in the first five months of this year, but plummeted to US$73 starting in June. A lower declared value means lower tariffs. Whirlpool said it had informed the Trump administration of its concerns and had confronted some www.xmmen.competitors, including South Korea's Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics, over relevant data. Some customs brokers believe that the sudden drop in declared value may be due to data entry errors rather than evasion of tariffs. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) came to the same conclusion after a review.

3. Barclays predicts that the U.S. economy will stabilize and slow down, with tariffs and employment becoming risk points

Barclays Bank predicts that from the third quarter of 2025 to the third quarter of 2026, the quarter-on-quarter growth of the U.S. economy will maintain an average of about 2%. The forecast reflects a still solid economic expansion, but the pace of growth will tend to slow as fiscal stimulus fades and trade headwinds persist. The bank said the recently implemented tariffs will have a "chronic depletion" effect on economic activity, with most www.xmmen.companies expected to gradually pass on higher import costs rather than trigger an immediate price spike. This may ease pressure on inflation data in the short term, but will prolong pressure on corporate profit margins. Barclays also warned that the main downside risks to its economic outlook came from a slowdown in consumer spending and a possible rise in unemployment, which could hit confidence and discretionary demand heading into 2026.

4. Hungarian Prime Minister: Without the EU instigating Russia and Ukraine, peace might have been achieved

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said in an interview with the Hungarian media on the 15th local time that if the EU had not incited Ukrainian President Zelensky behind the scenes, peace might have been achieved between Russia and Ukraine. But European leaders want the conflict to continue and are trying to bring U.S. President Donald Trump to support its continuation. Orban also reiterated his opposition to Ukraine joining the EU, saying that Ukraine's joining the EU would mean bringing war into the EU and would take away a large amount of EU funds. Orban also pointed out that before the upcoming EU summit next week, he wants to make it clear with Russia that if the EU uses frozen Russian assets, it willWill Russia's countermeasures include freezing the assets of Hungarian www.xmmen.companies? He will not support the EU's use of Russia's frozen assets if Hungarian www.xmmen.companies are likely to suffer Russian retaliation.

5. IMF: The Bank of Japan should raise interest rates cautiously to cope with uncertainty

A senior International Monetary Fund (IMF) official said on Wednesday that as global trade uncertainty clouds the economic outlook, the Bank of Japan must maintain an easy monetary policy and take a very gradual approach to raising interest rates. Nada Shuairi, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, pointed out that Japan's economic performance has been better than expected so far this year, thanks to strong consumption and exports, while the trade agreement between Tokyo and Washington has also alleviated some uncertainties. But she also stressed that growth risks are skewed to the downside due to uncertain prospects for other trade negotiations and the possible reversal of loose global financial conditions. She also said there was still uncertainty about whether domestic wages could continue to rise and support consumption, thereby stabilizing inflation near the Bank of Japan's 2% target. When asked about the market consensus that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates again in January next year, she responded: "It is important to be gradual, very gradual, and to pay attention to all emerging data."

Institutional View

1. Mitsubishi UFJ: Market Underestimating the risk of the Bank of England cutting interest rates again this year, the pound may continue to weaken

Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Derek Halpenny said in a report that the market currently underestimates the possibility of the Bank of England cutting interest rates again before December, which may put pressure on the pound. He pointed out that if the economic data released in the future show that inflation continues to slow down and wage growth does not rebound, then the reasons for easing monetary policy will be further strengthened. In addition, the UK's autumn budget to be announced on November 26 may confirm that fiscal austerity is a drag on the economy. According to LSEG data, the market is currently only pricing in expectations of about 12 basis points of interest rate cuts by December.

2. Institutions: Weak employment in the UK has pushed up expectations for an interest rate cut in December

Felipe Villarroel, an analyst at TwentyFour Asset Management, said in a report that the UK employment data released this week showed a weak labor market, providing room for the Bank of England to cut interest rates earlier than the market had previously expected. Data show that in the three months to August, the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.8% from 4.7% in the previous three months. Analysts pointed out: "Given these labor market data, it should be marginally easier for the Bank of England to start the process of cutting interest rates." LSEG data shows that the market currently expects the probability of the Bank of England cutting interest rates in December to be 47%, higher than the 33% probability before the release of Tuesday's employment data.

3. Institutions: The rebound of the euro is still limited. French political risks and the weakness of the German economy are the leading factors.

Analysts at MonexEurope said in the report that although there is initial progress in French budget negotiations and the easing of political uncertainty, which brings some optimism, the rebound of the euroBullets are expected to remain relatively mild. Analysts pointed out that the "fundamental fragility" of the euro zone remains a dominant theme, which was further confirmed after Germany's October ZEW economic sentiment index released on Tuesday was weaker than expected, which highlighted the weakening momentum of business confidence. The report stated: "We expect that political risks in France and economic weakness in Germany will continue to be the main driving factors affecting the trend of the euro in the short term."

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market analysis

Expectations of interest rate cuts coupled with improved risk sentiment put the dollar under pressure

Analysis of major currency trends

1. Australia's unemployment rate soared to a new high in nearly four years

2. U.S. officials: No evidence of widespread underreporting of imported home appliances

3. Barclays predicts that the U.S. economy will stabilize and slow down, with tariffs and employment becoming risk points

4. Hungarian Prime Minister: Without the EU instigating Russia and Ukraine, peace might have been achieved

5. IMF: The Bank of Japan should raise interest rates cautiously to cope with uncertainty

Institutional View

1. Mitsubishi UFJ: Market Underestimating the risk of the Bank of England cutting interest rates again this year, the pound may continue to weaken

2. Institutions: Weak employment in the UK has pushed up expectations for an interest rate cut in December

3. Institutions: The rebound of the euro is still limited. French political risks and the weakness of the German economy are the leading factors.

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market analysis

Expectations of interest rate cuts coupled with improved risk sentiment put the dollar under pressure

Analysis of major currency trends

1. Australia's unemployment rate soared to a new high in nearly four years

2. U.S. officials: No evidence of widespread underreporting of imported home appliances

3. Barclays predicts that the U.S. economy will stabilize and slow down, with tariffs and employment becoming risk points

4. Hungarian Prime Minister: Without the EU instigating Russia and Ukraine, peace might have been achieved

5. IMF: The Bank of Japan should raise interest rates cautiously to cope with uncertainty

Institutional View

1. Mitsubishi UFJ: Market Underestimating the risk of the Bank of England cutting interest rates again this year, the pound may continue to weaken

2. Institutions: Weak employment in the UK has pushed up expectations for an interest rate cut in December

3. Institutions: The rebound of the euro is still limited. French political risks and the weakness of the German economy are the leading factors.

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason