The United States and Israel once again threaten Hamas to disarm, trade tensions + interest rate cut expectations, gold price approaches 4220

Basic news

On Thursday (October 16th, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,210.94 per ounce. The price of gold stood at the US$4,200 per ounce mark on Wednesday, reaching a maximum of 4,218.1 4 US dollars per ounce, as rising interest rate cut bets and geopolitical unease caused investors to flock to safe-haven metals; US crude oil traded around US$58.18 per barrel, with oil price gains limited by escalating trade tensions and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a supply glut in 2026.

Focus during the day

Many Federal Reserve officials spoke, and Bank of England monetary policy member Mann gave a speech.

Stock Market

The S&P 500 ended higher on Wednesday, with Morgan Stanley and Bank of America rising on solid quarterly results, while investors remained concerned about the recent intensification of trade tensions.

Morgan Stanley's shares jumped 4.7% to hit a record high; Bank of America's shares rose 4.4% after the two large banks' third-quarter profits exceeded Wall Street expectations due to strong trading.

The S&P 500 banking index rose 1.2%, achieving three consecutive days of gains for the first time in more than three weeks. A day earlier, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase reported solid performance in their investment banking businesses and predicted the business would continue to thrive.

This week’s bank results point to strong results from major U.S. www.xmmen.companies as the third-quarter earnings season gets underway and provide a sign of the health of the economy at a time when many macroeconomic reports are on hold due to the government shutdown.The situation provides clues.

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta, said people are spending and consumers seem to be doing well. This is one of the messages conveyed by the bank's financial reports, that employment has not fallen like a stone. Inflation and employment are both within a basically reasonable range.

Boosted by the booming investment in artificial intelligence, ASML announced third-quarter orders and operating income that exceeded market expectations, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 3%. ASML's U.S. shares rose 2.7%.

An investment consortium www.xmmen.composed of BlackRock, Microsoft and NVIDIA will acquire one of the world's largest data center operators for US$40 billion. Shares of data center www.xmmen.companies rose, and shares of applied digital www.xmmen.companies surged. The S&P 500 index rose 0.40% to close at 6671.06 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.66% to 22,670.08 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04% to 46,253.31 points.

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 industry indexes rose, led by real estate, which rose 1.5%, followed by utilities, which rose 1.29%.

Trading volume on U.S. exchanges was relatively large, with 21.5 billion shares traded, www.xmmen.compared with an average of 20.4 billion shares traded in the previous 20 trading days.

Bessent said he plans to propose three to four Fed chairman candidates to Trump for interviews sometime after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Fed Governor Milan said at a www.xmmen.comBC event that "two more interest rate cuts this year sounds realistic," noting that the labor market is already significantly weak. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also left the door open to a rate cut on Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve said in its latest Beige Book as of October 6 that some employers reported cutting jobs due to economic uncertainty and, in some cases, increased investment in artificial intelligence. The report also showed that labor supply is tight in the hospitality, agriculture, construction and manufacturing industries due to the Trump administration's crackdown on illegal immigration.

Gold Market

Gold prices extended a record rally on Wednesday, topping $4,200 an ounce for the first time, as rising bets on interest rate cuts and geopolitical jitters sent investors flocking to the safe-haven metal.

Spot gold hit $4,218.14 on Wednesday, and the settlement price of U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.9% to $4,201.60.

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at CityIndex and FOREX.com, said the metal has been soaring and doesn't look like it wants to stop. With trade tensions reignited in the past few days, investors have more reason to hedge their long bets on stocks by diversifying into gold.

Gold has soared 60% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, interest rate cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarization and strong ETF inflows.above.

Razaqzada said: "We are now only $800 away from the $5,000 mark, and I will not bet that gold will not reach that price eventually."

Fed Chairman Powell made dovish remarks on Tuesday, saying that the U.S. labor market is still stuck in a "downturn of low hiring and low hiring." After that, the dollar fell against a basket of currencies.

Traders put a 98% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and then priced in a 100% chance of another rate cut in December.

Silver climbed 2.3% to $52.64. It hit an all-time high of $53.60 on Tuesday. Elsewhere, platinum climbed 0.6% to $1,647.55, while palladium fell 0.2% to $1,523.66.

Oil Market

Oil price gains were limited on Wednesday, affected by escalating trade tensions and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast of a supply glut in 2026.

Brent crude oil futures fell 0.8% to close at $61.91 a barrel. U.S. crude oil futures fell 0.7% to close at $58.27. The settlement prices of both benchmark crude oil futures hit their lowest since May 7 for the second consecutive day.

Brent oil prices could fall below $50 a barrel if trade tensions intensify and OPEC+ output increases, Bank of America said.

The world's two largest oil consumers renewed their trade war last week, with tit-for-tat moves over port fees threatening to disrupt global freight.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said on Wednesday that renewed trade tensions pose "substantial" downside risks to the economic outlook, making it even more important for the Fed to lower its benchmark interest rate. Loose economic policies can boost economic growth and oil demand.

U.S. retail sales excluding automobiles and parts may have increased further in September, although some of the increase may reflect higher prices, data from the Chicago Fed showed.

The global oil market could face a surplus of as much as 4 million barrels per day next year, a larger surplus than previously expected, as OPEC+ producers and rivals boost output while demand remains sluggish, the IEA said on Tuesday.

Forex Markets

The dollar fell against the euro and yen on Wednesday as ongoing trade tensions dented sentiment. Traders analyzed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech for clues on possible future rate cuts amid the U.S. government shutdown. The government shutdown has impacted the timely release of critical data.

The U.S. dollar fell 0.39% against the Japanese yen to 151.24 yen; it fell 0.49% against the Swiss franc to 0.797 Swiss francs. Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive, said, "The market has shown an impressive ability to remain unaffected by trade-related news, and there is a general belief that a way forward will be found and a trade agreement will be reached,"

ForexLive chief currency analyst Adam Button said. "The headlines remain inflammatory, including speeches by Bessant and Greer, but the market saw Trump quickly de-escalate the situation over the weekend and currently does not believe he really wants to fight a trade war."

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.32% to 98.72, falling for a second consecutive session. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that U.S. economic activity has barely changed recently, and employment is basically stable. However, there are signs of weakness such as increased layoffs and low- and middle-income households cutting spending.

Powell said in his speech on Tuesday that the U.S. labor market is still in a stagnant state of "low hiring and low layoffs" and did not rule out the possibility of further interest rate cuts. He pointed out that despite the lack of official economic data due to the government shutdown, at least for now there is still a wide enough range of public and private information for policymakers to assess the economic outlook.

According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data, the market is currently betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October 28-29 meeting and cut interest rates again at the December meeting. There will be three interest rate cuts next year.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.6 basis points to 4.038%. U.S. stocks ended mostly higher as www.xmmen.companies continued to report strong results. The euro rose 0.35% against the dollar to $1.1646, after rising 0.3% in the previous session, helped by the French government's proposal to suspend landmark pension reforms.

TS Lombard analyst Danielvon Ahlen wrote in an investor report that although the political turmoil in France has begun to ease, the euro still lacks obvious positive factors. At the same time, the recent performance of EUR/USD is www.xmmen.comparable to the rebound momentum seen after the euro zone previously announced a number of policies, which further enhances our strategic caution towards the euro.

The New Zealand dollar edged up just 0.1% to $0.5721, having fallen to a six-month low of $0.56839 the previous day. The Australian dollar rose 0.39% to $0.651, having fallen 0.5% in the previous session, hitting its lowest since August 22 at $0.64405.

International News

Hungarian Prime Minister: Without the EU instigating Russia and Ukraine, peace might have been achieved

Hungarian Prime Minister Orban said in an interview with the Hungarian media on the 15th local time that if the EU had not incited Ukrainian President Zelensky behind the scenes, peace might have been achieved between Russia and Ukraine. But European leaders want the conflict to continue and are trying to bring U.S. President Donald Trump to support its continuation. Orban also reiterated his opposition to Ukraine joining the EU, saying that Ukraine's joining the EU would mean bringing war into the EU and would take away a large amount of EU funds. Orban also pointed out that before the upcoming EU summit next week, he would like to clarify with Russia whether the countermeasures Russia will take include freezing the assets of Hungarian www.xmmen.companies if the EU uses frozen Russian assets. likeIf Hungarian www.xmmen.companies are likely to suffer Russian retaliation, he will not support the EU's use of Russian frozen assets.

Trump said Zelensky will elaborate on the reasons for an "attack" against Russia during his visit to the United States

On October 15, local time, U.S. President Trump said that Ukrainian President Zelensky will elaborate on the reasons for an "attack" against Russia when he visits the White House later this week. Trump said Ukraine "wants to attack." It is reported that Zelensky is urging European countries to purchase more advanced and longer-range Tomahawk missiles from the United States, which may then be transferred to Ukraine. Zelensky is also seeking to purchase more Patriot air defense systems as one of the new measures to turn the tide of the war. Trump has yet to www.xmmen.commit to either measure.

The United States and Israel have once again threatened Hamas to disarm, and the parties may continue to fight

On October 15, local time, the US military Middle East www.xmmen.command called on the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) to immediately disarm. On the same day, US President Trump also said that if Hamas does not abide by the ceasefire agreement, the Israeli army may resume fighting in the Gaza Strip "as long as he gives the order." On the same day, Israeli Defense Minister Katz also issued a statement saying that Israel would cooperate with international forces to destroy Hamas’ tunnels and infrastructure. Katz urged Hamas to hand over all Israeli personnel and disarm. He warned that if Hamas refuses to implement the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Israel and the United States will restart www.xmmen.combat operations against Hamas. At present, Hamas has not responded to this.

Trump confirmed that he has authorized the CIA to carry out operations in Venezuela

On the 15th local time, US President Trump stated that the United States will consider launching land operations to carry out ground strikes against drug trafficking groups, and confirmed that it has authorized the CIA to carry out operations in Venezuela. Previously, some media reported that the U.S. government had secretly authorized the CIA to carry out covert operations in Venezuela. The new authority allows the CIA to conduct lethal covert operations alone or in conjunction with the U.S. military, which is also preparing for potential attacks in Venezuela.

A U.S. judge temporarily blocks the federal government from laying off employees during the shutdown

A U.S. judge has ordered the Trump administration to pause plans to lay off thousands of federal employees during the government shutdown. U.S. District Judge Susan Illston in San Francisco made the ruling on Wednesday. More than 4,100 federal employees have received layoff notices since last week. The order is not a final ruling on the merits of the case. That means the more than two dozen federal agencies named in the case are barred from issuing new layoff notices if they involve projects involving the union members who filed the lawsuit. The ruling means the government must pause action on the notices it has issued while judges weigh whether to impose a longer-term ban.

In response to government budget cuts, many U.S. states formed a cross-party "public health alliance"

On October 15, local time, the governors of 15 U.S. states and territories announced the establishment of a cross-partySend a "public health alliance" to strengthen emergency coordination, vaccine policy and health security cooperation. Massachusetts Governor Healey said states will work together to ensure residents have access to necessary medical services. Governors warn that the Trump administration's budget cuts are threatening the public health system. The "Public Health Alliance" is mainly www.xmmen.composed of states and territories controlled by the Democratic Party, including California, New York, Illinois, Washington State, Guam, etc.

Yuichiro Tamaki is expected to become the prime minister candidate

According to Japanese media reports, Japan originally planned to convene an interim parliament on October 21 to elect the successor of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, but the opposition party rejected the proposal on the grounds that inter-party consultations were ongoing. The ruling party and the opposition parties will continue to discuss the timing of the prime minister's nomination election. Liberal Democratic Party President Takaichi Sanae met with three opposition party leaders on the afternoon of October 15. On the opposition side, the Constitutional Democratic Party advocates the realization of regime change as soon as possible and has a positive attitude towards supporting Yuichiro Tamaki as a unification candidate; the National Democratic Party emphasizes that cooperation will only occur if fundamental positions such as the constitution, foreign and security policies are consistent; the Restoration Party prefers a flexible alliance with "policy consensus" as the core. Whether the three parties can reach a consensus will directly determine the outcome of the prime minister election.

Domestic News

The China E-commerce Logistics Index in September continued to set a new high for the year

The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing today announced the China E-commerce Logistics Index in September. China’s e-commerce logistics index continues to rise month-on-month and continues to set a new high for the year. China's e-commerce logistics index in September was 112.7 points, an increase of 0.4 points from the previous month, setting a new high for the year. In September, the total e-commerce logistics business volume index was 132.5 points, an increase of 1.1 points from the previous month. In terms of regions, except for the eastern region, all other regions have rebounded, with the central region seeing the largest increase. The total e-commerce logistics business volume index increased by 3.5 points from the previous month.

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