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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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Australian dollar outlook, buyers on dips will pay attention to Australian dollar
Wonderful introduction:
Spring flowers will bloom! If you have ever experienced winter, then you will have spring! If you have dreams, then spring will definitely not be far away; if you are giving, then one day you will have flowers blooming in the garden.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM official website】: Australian dollar outlook, buyers on dips will pay attention to Australian dollar". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (August 25), the Australian dollar/USD overall showed a trend of fluctuating downward first, then rising and falling, and then rebounding slightly. There are certain signs of rebound in the short term.
Australia is attracting the attention of dips buyers after gaining support near key technical positions. The Australian dollar gain last week was driven by a dovish speech by Powell at Jackson Hole annual meeting, which pushed up new bets on the Fed's interest rate cut and weakened the dollar. However, as the RBA is unwilling to further relax monetary policy and the market focus this week is on US PCE inflation data, the upside potential of the Australian dollar/USD may still be limited.
The Fed's dovish stance boosted the Australian dollar
The Australian dollar ended with its best single-day performance in three months last week, driven by Powell's weakening of the dollar after his speech at Jackson Hall annual meeting. In his speech, Powell acknowledged signs of weakness in the labor market, pointing out that there is an "abnormal balance" between slowing labor supply and demand - a phenomenon that not only increases the risk of rising unemployment and reduces the possibility of layoffs in www.xmmen.companies.
His remarks actually "golden light" to the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and said that if employment conditions worsen, there is still room for another rate cut in December. At present, federal funds rate futures show that the market expects a rate cut in September to reach 83%, but the probability of a rate cut in December is still relatively low, only 49.2%.
After strong employment data, the Reserve Bank of Australia may remain cautious
The recent data released by Australia is unlikely to prompt the RBA to take immediate policy action. The country's unemployment rate has dropped to 4.2%, and the number of full-time employment has increased by 60,500, offsetting the negative impact of a 38,200 decline last monthring. In addition, boosted by the Reserve Bank of Australia's previous 25 basis points rate cut, consumer confidence also rose sharply, which further reduced the possibility of the central bank's interest rate cuts in the short term.
Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting are not expected to change the current policy outlook - the bank's current forecast shows that it may only cut interest rates again this year, with a rate cut of 25 basis points each in the first and second half of 2026.
Australia/USD Focus: US PCE inflation data
Currently the market focus is turning to US PCE inflation data—this is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Previously, the core consumer price index (CPI) has climbed to 3.1% year-on-year. If the core PCE inflation rate is further close to 3%, it may weaken market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. This will trigger the risk of a dollar rebound and limit the AUD/USD further upside.
Net short positions in AUD/USD futures increased again last week, with net short positions in asset managers and large speculators hitting 14-month and 16-month highs, respectively. The rise in open positions confirms the strong momentum behind short positions.
However, the rekindled expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening of the US dollar may push short-term support for the Australian dollar.
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart of the Australian dollar/USD, the pair builds bottom support above 0.6415. The Australian dollar/USD rose significantly afterwards.
The exchange rate broke through the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward trend from the high of 0.6624 to the low of 0.6415, and tested the 50 moving average.
From the upward space, the first major resistance faced by the bulls may be 0.6520. If the resistance level of 0.6520 is broken through and the exchange rate may rise further, the next main target level will point to around 0.6540; if the increase continues to expand, it is expected to clear obstacles to the impact of the 0.6565 mark. On the contrary, if the exchange rate fails to close above 0.6490, a new round of decline may begin.
Fast-term support level is first focused on around 0.6470, and the next key support area is 0.6440. If it falls below the 0.6440 support level, the exchange rate may further fall to 0.6410; if the decline continues, it may even approach the 0.6350 mark.
From the weekly chart, the Australian dollar/USD is still in the range of 0.6400-0.6600. Although the long lower shadow around 0.6420 indicates that buying on dips may occur, the bulls may remain on the wait-and-see unless the Fed releases a signal of multiple rate cuts.
The 50-week exponential moving average is at 0.6472 and the 200-day exponential moving average is at 0.6455, both of which are key support levels for potential band lows. However, since last Friday's rise encountered obstacles and stagnation at the 50-day index moving average, the possibility of a pullback cannot be ruled out in the short term.
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