The U.S.-Russia phone call dragged down oil prices by more than 3%, and gold bulls accelerated their approach to 4,400. Risk concerns in the credit market intensified.

Basic news

On Friday (October 17, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,361.62 per ounce. The price of gold continued to hit a record high on Thursday, approaching US$4,380 per ounce, due to intensifying trade tensions and the U.S. government’s shutdown. Investors flocked to gold as a safe haven as the credit market was hit by three suspected fraud incidents, exacerbating concerns about deeper cracks; U.S. crude oil traded around $57 a barrel, with oil prices falling more than 2% on Thursday. Trump said he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold another summit to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.

Stock Markets

U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday as signs of weakness from regional banks spooked investors already jittery over trade tensions.

Zions Bancorporation shares tumbled 13% after the regional lender disclosed unexpected losses on two loans at its California unit, adding to investor jitters about hidden credit stress as lenders contend with economic uncertainty while interest rates remain relatively high.

Western Alliance fell 10.8% after it said it had filed a fraud lawsuit against a borrower. Concerns about business lending have grown following the collapse of U.S. auto parts supplier First Brands and car dealer Tricolor in September.

LNW Chief Investment Officer Ron Albahary said: "I think there is aSome degree of extreme nervousness. If you've been in this space long enough, you can't ignore any signs that might be warning signs in the credit markets.

Tom Hainlin, investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said: "The uncertainty about trade has increased, the rhetoric has increased, and what this may mean for the economy and the market, I think it has increased the instability of the market." "

The world's largest advanced semiconductor manufacturer expressed optimism about the prospects of spending on artificial intelligence. However, heavyweight artificial intelligence-related stocks still fell, with Palantir and MetaPlatforms both falling 0.8%, and Tesla falling 1.5%.

Sales Force jumped 4% as the business software seller forecast revenue of more than $60 billion in 2030, beating Wall Street expectations.

Optimism about artificial intelligence and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts have pushed Wall Street to a record high this year, according to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data. According to reports, the S&P 500 Index has risen 12% so far in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 times, a five-year high.

Strong earnings from major U.S. banks this week provided new signs of an economic recovery at a time when official macroeconomic reports are still delayed by the government shutdown.

According to data from LSEGI/B/E/S, analysts on average believe that the S&P 500's total third-quarter earnings will increase 9.2%, www.xmmen.compared with the 8.8% increase expected two weeks ago.

The S&P 500 insurance index fell after industry benchmark Travelers Insurance reported lower-than-expected quarterly revenue, and the www.xmmen.company's shares fell Nearly 3%. Insurer Marsh & McLennan reported flat operating profit margins and slower growth in its risk and insurance businesses, sending its shares down 8.5%.

The S&P 500 index fell 0.63% to close at 6629.07 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.47% to 22,562.54 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.65% to 45,952.24 points.

Ten of the 11 industry indexes in the S&P 500 fell, led by financials, which fell 2.75%, followed by energy, which fell 1.12%.

Data show that in October Philadelphia The Fed's business index fell 12.8 points, while economists polled by Reuters estimated an increase of 8.5 points.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller said he supports another interest rate cut in October due to mixed interpretations of job market conditions.

Gold Market

Gold prices hit a new high for the fourth consecutive trading day on Thursday, soaring to more than $430 an ounce. As trade tensions intensified and the U.S. government shut down, investors flocked to gold as a safe haven, and expectations of interest rate cuts further boosted the momentum.

Gold prices hit a record high of $4,379.38 on Thursday. U.S. December gold futures hit 4335A new record high for the U.S. dollar.

Gold prices have risen more than 60% so far this year, helped by geopolitical tensions, aggressive interest rate cut expectations, central bank buying, de-dollarization trends and massive inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Zain Vawda, an analyst at OANDA's MarketPulse, said, "The trend of gold will depend on the interest rate cut before 2026 and the evolution of trade relations. If an agreement is not reached and relations continue to deteriorate, it may become a catalyst for gold to break through $5,000 per ounce."

Traders are currently betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and another cut in December, with probabilities of 98% and 95% respectively. Gold, a non-yielding asset, typically performs well in a low interest rate environment.

Vawda pointed out that gold’s short-term correction may be temporary, as bullish investors tend to re-establish positions when prices fall.

HSBC raised its forecast for the average gold price in 2025 to US$3,355 per ounce on Wednesday, citing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and safe-haven demand brought about by a weaker US dollar.

At the same time, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a pause in the release of economic data, with a Treasury official warning that the shutdown could cost the economy up to $15 billion in weekly output.

Spot silver rose 1.8% to US$54.04 per ounce, hitting a record high of US$54.15 during the session, supported by rising gold and tight supply in the spot market.

Platinum rose 3.2% to $1,706.65 an ounce; palladium jumped 4.6% to $1,606.00 an ounce.

Oil Market

Oil prices fell more than 3% on Thursday. U.S. President Trump said that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold another summit to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine. This has brought uncertainty to global energy supplies. Brent crude oil futures closed 1.37% lower at $61.06 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures closed 1.39% lower at $57.46 a barrel. This is the lowest settlement price for these two crude oil futures indicators since May 5.

Trump said that he had a phone conversation with Putin for more than two hours and called the call "productive" and that the two sides will meet in Budapest soon. The Kremlin confirmed plans for the meeting but did not announce a specific date.

"Geopolitical tensions between Russia, the United States and Ukraine are starting to develop again," said Tim Snyder, chief economist at Matador Economics, which prompted some market participants to unwind their positions.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels last week to 423.8 million barrels. A survey showed that analysts expected an increase of 288,000 barrels, which also put pressure on oil prices. The main reason for the larger-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories isRefineries have entered the autumn turnaround period, and refinery capacity utilization has dropped significantly.

EIA data also showed that U.S. production rose to 13.636 million barrels per day, a record high.

Meanwhile, traders are also eyeing a possible halt to India's imports of Russian oil, which could reshape oil flows and increase demand for supplies elsewhere.

Foreign Markets

The U.S. dollar fell on Thursday, falling against major currencies such as the euro, yen and Swiss franc for a third consecutive session, amid trade tensions and markets assessing www.xmmen.comments from Federal Reserve officials.

The U.S. dollar fell 0.49% against the Swiss franc to 0.793. Fed Governor John Waller said he agreed to cut interest rates again at the Fed's policy meeting later this month amid mixed readings on job market conditions.

New Fed Governor Milan reiterated his support for a more aggressive path of interest rate cuts in 2025 than some of his colleagues support.

The Fed's Beige Book offered little support for U.S. interest rates, pointing to emerging signs of economic weakness, including increased layoffs and reduced spending by low- and middle-income households.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against six other currencies, fell 0.33% to 98.35. U.S. Treasury yields are hovering near multi-week lows, with the benchmark 10-year note yielding just above 4%, weighing on the dollar as investors also weigh the possibility of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown.

Weller said that the U.S. government shutdown is expected to last nearly 40 days, and we are in a state of standstill here. The longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the impact on the economy. I think the persistence of trade tensions puts traders in an awkward position as they decide how these issues will be resolved. French Prime Minister Le Corny survived two no-confidence votes in parliament to win a temporary reprieve for his days-in-power government and the opportunity to deliver a budget for the euro zone's second-largest economy. Le Corny had promised earlier this week to suspend President Macron's controversial pension reforms. The euro hit a one-week high, rising 0.36% to $1.1688.

BoJ Governor Makoto Shimizu said on Thursday that the Bank of Japan must be cautious when normalizing monetary policy due to uncertainty about how the economy will respond to a new positive interest rate environment. After Shimizu Seiichi's www.xmmen.comments, the dollar's decline expanded against the yen, falling 0.46% in late trading to 151.35.

The Australian dollar fell 0.48% against the US dollar to US$0.6479 after data showed that the unemployment rate hit a nearly four-year high in September, adding reason for a rate cut.

The Australian dollar, often seen as an indicator of market risk appetite, is still constrained by trade-related news; even if its fundamentals are good, it could quickly deteriorate in a major trade war.

Goldman Sachs analysts predict that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates for the final time by 25 basis points at its November meeting following www.xmmen.comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Chairman Bullock. This prediction is based on BloorGram's www.xmmen.comments suggest the central bank believes its rate-cutting cycle is www.xmmen.coming to an end.

Goldman Sachs analysts led by Stuart Jenkins said in an investor note: "Today's employment data also pushed this direction, and although AUD/USD has recovered its initial losses, trade tensions are likely to remain a key driver of AUD/USD movements in the www.xmmen.coming days. "

International News

The government "shutdown" continues for the tenth time. The US Senate rejected the temporary appropriation bill for the tenth time.

On October 16, local time, the US Senate once again failed to advance the Republican's temporary appropriation bill by a vote of 51 to 45. It is reported that Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill that will fund the government until the end of November. This is the 10th consecutive vote in the past two weeks that the Senate has rejected the temporary appropriation bill after the U.S. government was shut down.

Germany promotes "active pensions" to encourage employees to continue working after retirement

Germany's "Bild" reported on the 16th that the German federal cabinet approved a draft law on the 15th, stipulating the introduction of an "active pension" plan from January 1, 2026 to alleviate the shortage of skilled workers in Germany. According to the draft law, income of up to 2,000 euros per month is tax-free if employees continue to work after the standard retirement age. The tax-free amount does not require unemployment and pension contributions, but health and care expenses of approximately 220 euros are required. Currently, the standard retirement age for German employees is gradually being raised to 67 years old. Deutsche Presse-Agentur News Agency stated that the Christian Democrats proposed an "active pension" plan during the "Traffic Light" coalition's administration and promised to implement the plan after winning the election during this year's Bundestag election. Last week, the coalition parties (CDU/CSU) and SPD agreed on the details of "active pensions" in the governing coalition www.xmmen.committee.

More than $100 billion in bank stock market value has been wiped out as concerns about the U.S. credit crisis rise

www.xmmen.compared with the collapse of First Brands Group and Tricolor Holdings, the losses disclosed by regional lenders Zion Bank and Western Union appear smaller, amounting to tens of millions of dollars rather than billions of dollars. Yet revelations of loan fraud have reignited debate on Wall Street over whether the era of laissez-faire capital will cost banks and non-banks alike. In the Zion Bank and Western Union cases, the alleged perpetrators are the same: investment funds linked to Andrew Stupin and Gerald Marcil, among others, borrowed money to buy distressed www.xmmen.commercial mortgages. The disclosures add to other recent loan blowouts, including when subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings filed for bankruptcy last month, causing some debt to be virtually wiped out. Subsequently, auto parts supplier First Brands Group also declared bankruptcy, owing more than $10 billion to some of Wall Street's largest financial institutions. The stock market reacted strongly: More than $100 billion was wiped off the market value of 74 of the largest U.S. banks on Thursday.

Goldman Sachs warns of consequences of credit 'explosion'

Credit markets have been rocked by three incidents of alleged fraud in recent weeks, fueling fears of deeper cracks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. President Waldron said that credit growth has exploded over the past decade and if the situation worsens, the consequences will not be good. The executive noted that about $5 trillion in borrowing is spread across high-yield bonds, leveraged loans and private credit, which has driven much of the growth.

Putin: Russia needs to establish "comprehensive energy sovereignty"

Russian President Putin said on the 16th that Russia needs to establish "comprehensive energy sovereignty" from resource extraction and processing to transportation of finished products. According to the Kremlin website, Putin attended the "Russian Energy Week" forum that day and said that Russia needs to actively seek to transform from a buyer of energy equipment to a technology leader and establish "comprehensive energy sovereignty" at the national level from resource extraction, processing to finished product transportation. Russia is working hard to achieve technological leadership in the energy field and calls for www.xmmen.comprehensive technical cooperation among energy producing countries that is not affected by sanctions and external pressure.

Trump: After a productive phone call with Putin, he will meet with Putin at a mutually agreed location in Budapest, Hungary

Trump said: “I just concluded a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was very productive. President Putin congratulated me and the United States on the ‘major achievement’ of peace in the Middle East, he said This is a goal that people have been looking forward to for centuries. I firmly believe that the resolution of the Middle East issue will help us negotiate an end to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. President Putin also thanked First Lady Melania for her www.xmmen.commitment to children's causes, and said that we will continue to support related work. We also spent a lot of time discussing trade issues between the United States and Russia after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. At the end of the day, we agreed to hold a high-level advisory meeting next week. The first round of meetings on the U.S. side will be held by Secretary of State Marco? Rubio will take the lead, other participants are to be determined, and the meeting location has not yet been determined. Afterwards, President Putin and I will meet at a mutually agreed location - Budapest, Hungary, to discuss whether we can end this "disgraceful" Russia-Ukraine conflict. Tomorrow, I will meet with President Zelensky in the Oval Office, where we will discuss my call with President Putin and more. I think significant progress was made in today's call. ”

Multiple data showed that U.S. consumption slowed down in September

Multiple credit card transaction and private sector data showed that U.S. consumer demand slowed down last month. After analyzing high-frequency spending data including credit card borrowings and same-store sales, economists said that consumers began to tighten spending based on the strong annualized growth of 4.1% in retail activity in the previous three months. Bank of America economist Shruti Mishra pointed out: "From June to August, there is a trend of slowing down spending month by month, and you will not see it next.growth rate like before. "Credit and debit card data from the data analysis platform SecondMeasure showed that consumers' willingness to purchase non-essential items such as furniture, electronic products and home appliances weakened last month. Bank of America's credit card data also showed cooling demand. Economists at Barclays Bank said that according to the analysis, including Models governing income, stock market wealth, inflation, consumer confidence and credit card spending indicate that retail sales "may have weakened" in September.

The French government passed a vote of no confidence in parliament

On October 16, the French National Assembly voted against two resolutions against the government. A vote of no confidence was held, but the motion was ultimately not passed, and the government led by French Prime Minister Le Corny was not overthrown by Parliament. Le Corni said after the vote that the 2026 national budget draft will soon begin discussion and review in the National Assembly. On September 9, Le Corny, then Minister of Defense, was appointed Prime Minister by President Macron. On October 6, Le Corni submitted his resignation and was approved. On the 10th, Le Corny was re-appointed Prime Minister. France's main opposition proposed a motion of no-confidence against the government on the 13th.

Domestic News

China Central www.xmmen.committee Ding Zhijie, Director of the Institute of Banking and Finance: China is exploring a path that www.xmmen.combines green transformation with economic growth

The 2025 Sustainable Global Leaders Conference was held from October 16th to 18th at the World Expo Park in Huangpu District, Shanghai. Ding Zhijie, director of the Financial Research Institute of the People's Bank of China, attended and delivered a speech. Ding Zhijie said at the meeting that China’s experience can be learned. As a developing country, China's green transformation path is of general significance. Different from the Western emission reduction model, China is exploring a path that www.xmmen.combines green transformation with economic growth. Institutional innovation and scientific and technological development will not be carried out. Attention should be paid to system construction, green development goals should be deeply embedded in national governance, environmental protection performance should be included in the assessment of local governments, and a series of policies and regulations should be introduced to provide a solid guarantee for green technologies, industries and markets. At the same time, we have also actively used market forces to establish a national carbon emissions trading system. These efforts have achieved remarkable results. By the end of last year, China's renewable energy installed capacity accounted for 35% of the world's total, and energy consumption per unit of GPD has dropped significantly, achieving economic development while protecting the environment.

The above content is about "[XM Group]: The U.S.-Russia call drags down oil prices by more than 3%, gold prices accelerate to approach 4400, and credit market risk concerns intensify. The entire content is carefully www.xmmen.compiled and edited by the editor of