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Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut push GBP/USD to rebound to 1.3350, while weakness in the UK labor market may limit gains

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: Rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have pushed the pound against the dollar to rebound to 1.3350, and the British labor market is weak or may limit gains." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

In early Asian trading, the pound continued to rebound against the US dollar, trading at around 1.3350. The main reason for the weakness of the US dollar is that expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have increased significantly.

According to the CMEFedWatch tool, the market currently predicts that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in October is as high as 94%, and the probability of another interest rate cut in December is also as high as 93%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech on Tuesday that the central bank plans to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points this month, even if the government shutdown weakens the readability of economic data. Powell emphasized that U.S. employment growth has slowed significantly and may weaken further.

In addition to Powell, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that the Fed's policy is not a fixed path and may still keep interest rates unchanged in the future, but even if it continues to be loose, the policy stance will remain "moderately tight."

This statement made the market believe that the Federal Reserve is gradually entering an interest rate cutting cycle. Investors are awaiting the latest speeches from Federal Reserve officials Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller and Jeff Schmid for further policy clues.

Although the pound has risen in the short term supported by a weaker dollar, local economic data in the UK still shows a weak labor market. The market expects the Bank of England (BoE) to still cut interest rates by a total of about 46 basis points in the remainder of 2025.

According to market surveys, the slowdown in British recruitment and the decline in wage growth may cause the pound to lack the momentum to continue to rise.

Judging from the daily chart, the pound against the US dollar has experienced a technical rebound after falling for two consecutive days. The exchange rate is still below the 20-day moving average (about 1.3370), indicating that upward pressure still exists.

If the exchange rate can break through the 1.3400 resistance zone, it is expected to further test the 1.3450 to 1.3480 range; if the rebound is blocked and falls below the 1.3300 support level, it may revisit 1.3250. The RSI indicator shows a mild rebound, but the momentum is still weak, reflecting that the market's long and short forces have not yet reached a consensus.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut have pushed the pound against the US dollar to rebound to 1.3350, and the British labor market is weak or may limit the increase." It is carefully www.xmmen.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Rising expectations of a Fed rate cut push GBP/USD to rebound to 1.3350, while weakness in the UK labor market may limit gains

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