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US data "black hole" triggers global crisis, shutdown farce subverts economic decision-making

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Official Website]: US data "black hole" triggers global crisis, shutdown farce subverts economic decision-making." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

In today's highly interconnected global economic system, as the world's largest economy, the internal turmoil of the United States often affects countries around the world like dominoes. The recent shutdown of the U.S. government has disrupted the release of official data. This incident is not only an administrative chaos in the United States, but also a trigger for widespread concern among policymakers around the world. It exposed deep-seated problems in the U.S. governance system and heightened international institutions' alertness to the risks of policy misjudgment. Authoritative institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have listed this loss of institutional trust as one of the downside risks to the global economy.

Global chain reaction of data outage

The U.S. government shutdown directly led to the suspension of the release of many key economic data. This was not limited to the United States, but quickly spread to the global perspective.

Policymakers in various countries rely heavily on accurate insights into the state of the U.S. economy when formulating their own monetary policies, evaluating trade performance, and forecasting inflation trends. Imagine that when the "pulse" of the world's largest economy suddenly becomes unclear, other countries are like sailing in fog, unable to accurately grasp the direction.

Especially in the context of the Trump administration's reshaping of the global trade landscape, this data blind spot further www.xmmen.complicates the decision-making process of various countries.

Officials said that this is not just a simple lack of information, but will amplify the risk of decision-making errors, because any misjudgment of the US economy may trigger a chain reaction, affecting global supply chains, exchange rate fluctuations and investment confidence. For example, when countries such as Japan that rely on the U.S. market lack reliable data when adjusting interest rates or trade strategies, they are prone to deviations, causing economic policies to deviate.road.

Strong dissatisfaction and challenge from the Bank of Japan

As an important trading partner of the United States, Japan reacted particularly fiercely to this data interruption. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda bluntly pointed out at a press conference on October 3 that this was a "serious problem" and hoped to be resolved as soon as possible. He emphasized that the lack of U.S. data has become a major obstacle at a critical moment when the Bank of Japan decides when to resume interest rate hikes.

This is not only a technical inconvenience, but also a shake of confidence in decision-making. An unnamed Japanese policymaker expressed dissatisfaction in sharp language: "This is simply a joke. Fed Chairman Powell has always emphasized that policy relies on data, but now there is no data to rely on."

This radical view reflects the frustration of Japanese officials, because they must weigh the balance between domestic economic recovery and global uncertainty with incomplete information. This also reminds us that data disruption is not an isolated incident, but will amplify the operational difficulties of central banks, especially under the dual attack of inflationary pressure and slowing economic growth.

The Bank of England’s prudent observations and hidden concerns

www.xmmen.compared with Japan’s direct dissatisfaction, the Bank of England’s response appears more cautious, but it also reveals deep concerns.

Catherine Mann, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy www.xmmen.committee, said that U.S. data issues, the Fed's independence controversy and other related issues do not directly impact the UK's decision-making discussions like changes in trade policy. While changes in trade policy can have an immediate impact on price levels and export prospects, the impact of these data disruptions is more of a lurking threat.

She used a vivid metaphor to describe it: The decline of the pound from its status as an international core currency took decades, and it was precisely caused by the long-term erosion of a variety of "termite" factors. Similarly, policy changes that may weaken the status of the dollar or erode the independence of the Federal Reserve, although not the core issue at the moment, will, like termites, slowly eat away at the stability of the global financial system.

Mann emphasized that the Bank of England is indeed considering these factors, but their impact is gradual and requires long-term vigilance. This analysis reveals the hidden destructive power of data interruption: it is not just a short-term data loss, but it may also shake the foundation of the global monetary system.

Shifting focus and deep governance issues at international meetings

This week, global financial leaders gathered in Washington to attend meetings of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

In the context of long-term challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and climate change, the focus of this meeting unexpectedly turned to US President Trump’s global strategy and his performance in office, especially the unexpected event that the United States suddenly stopped releasing official data.

The government shutdown could end at any time and data releases could resume, but the incident exposed deeper problems with U.S. governance and data reliability. Trump tries to exert new influence over Fed and dissatisfaction with jobs reportThe firing of the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is considered one of the global "downside risks" by the IMF.

The IMF clearly warned in the "World Economic Outlook" released on Tuesday (October 14): "Intensified political pressure on policy agencies may undermine hard-won public confidence in their ability to fulfill their responsibilities."

In addition, pressure on data collection and publishing agencies may also damage trust in official statistics, thereby greatly increasing the difficulty of decision-making by central banks and policymakers. If political interference results in data quality, reliability and timeliness being www.xmmen.compromised, the potential for policy missteps will further increase. The atmosphere of this meeting was like a global wake-up call, reminding leaders of various countries that the internal chaos in the United States has become a "ticking time bomb" for the global economy.

Potential Rising Risks and Limitations of Alternatives

Of course, not all data is www.xmmen.completely lost. As a self-funded agency, the Fed is not affected by the shutdown and continues to conduct investigations through its extensive network of contacts. At the same time, private data services have provided alternatives, and policymakers have learned to www.xmmen.combine this information into short-term analysis tools that, while not perfect, can at least maintain basic operations.

Person, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy www.xmmen.committee, pointed out that although the monthly data released by the United States attracts much attention, it has never been a decisive factor for other central banks. However, the shutdown itself and the confusion surrounding the Bureau of Labor Statistics have heightened widespread doubts about American governance and reliability. This is critical because it ultimately affects reserve management and monetary decisions, creating the prospect of volatility never seen before in the United States.

If the focus of the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank was the uncertainty caused by Trump’s increased tariffs and trade protectionism, then the current attention has turned to how www.xmmen.companies, countries and consumers respond to this new pattern.

In short, at least until September, the situation is not as bad as Trump expected when he took office, but it is still being adjusted.

The IMF's latest global economic outlook believes that the impact of this change on the economic outlook is obvious but not huge. But now, as the U.S. stops releasing data, the outlook becomes murkier the longer the shutdown lasts.

Robert Kahn, global head of macro at EurasiaGroup, said that although there is still a lot of information available for reference, and policymakers are also investing in collecting micro data and evidence, how to effectively integrate this information and how the market reacts to this information are still key unknowns. As time goes by, uncertainty accumulates and the risk of misjudgment rises.

Summary

In short, the data interruption caused by the U.S. government shutdown is not only a temporary administrative failure, but also the epitome of a crisis of trust in global economic governance. It reminds us that in an interdependent world, one country's internal problems can be magnified into global risks. Policymakers in various countries need to strengthen the use of alternative data sources andBe wary of the long-term erosion of data reliability caused by political interference. Only through international cooperation and institutional reform can we reduce the risk of policy misjudgments and ensure the stability of the global economy.

The disruption in official data caused by the U.S. government shutdown may have a significant indirect impact on gold prices. As a safe-haven asset, gold's price typically performs strongly when uncertainty rises. Due to the lack of U.S. economic data, it is difficult for global central banks and investors to accurately assess the state of the U.S. economy, which has exacerbated market uncertainty and volatility. Against this backdrop, investors may turn to gold to hedge risks, pushing gold prices higher in the short term. In addition, the IMF and the World Bank listed the loss of institutional trust as a downside risk to the global economy, further enhancing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. In the Asian market on Wednesday, spot gold remained strong. As of 13:30, it once hit a record high of $4,193.55 per ounce, an increase of about 1.22%.

However, the long-term trend of gold prices also needs to consider other factors. While data outages could push gold prices higher in the short term, the Fed's independence controversy and Trump's interference in data agencies could erode global trust in the U.S. dollar, which is a potential support for gold prices. If the government shutdown lasts longer and the market's confidence in the United States' governance capabilities further declines, gold prices may continue to be boosted. However, if the shutdown ends quickly, data releases resume, and market uncertainty eases, the upward momentum of gold prices may weaken. Therefore, investors need to pay close attention to the progress of the government shutdown and the reaction of the global market to judge the further trend of gold prices.

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