A large number of Democratic Party projects will be frozen, trade tensions ease, gold prices fall nearly 2%, and the US government continues to shut down

Basic news

On Monday (October 20, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$4,250 per ounce. The price of gold fell by nearly 2% after hitting a record high of US$4,379.38 per ounce last Friday. It was affected by the strength of the US dollar and U.S. President Trump’s tariffs. Trump's tone on tariffs has been tempered; U.S. crude oil is trading around $57.17/barrel, and U.S. oil hit a low since early May on Friday to $56.15/barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a growing oversupply and U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet again to discuss the Ukraine issue.

Focus during the day

The National Bureau of Statistics released a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the performance of the national economy. The Bank of Canada releases its business outlook survey and consumer expectations survey.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday as investors assessed U.S. President Trump's trade remarks, while quarterly earnings reports from regional banks eased concerns about credit risks.

Regional bank stocks rebounded after a sell-off last Thursday. Previously, Zions Bancorporation disclosed losses on two www.xmmen.commercial and industrial loans, and Western Alliance said it had filed a fraud lawsuit against Cantor Group V LLC.

Jed Ellerbroek, Portfolio Manager of Argent Capital, said, “Credit concerns are more of a sign of big thunder but little rain. Judging from the financial reports of major banks, the overall credit situation is good., with only a few weak links. "

Zions stock price rebounded 5.8%, recovering the previous day's losses; Western Alliance rose 3.1%.

The S&P 1500 regional bank index rose 1.8%, after falling nearly 6% the previous day. The S&P 500 financial sector rose 0.8%. Large banks such as JPMorgan Chase announced strong earnings last week, marking the first The start of the third-quarter earnings season brings positive signals. According to London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) I/B/E/S data, analysts on average expect third-quarter earnings of S&P 500 www.xmmen.companies to grow by 9.3%, higher than the 8.8% growth expected in early October.

After a cumulative increase of nearly 14% in 2025, the current price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index. It is 23 times expected earnings, the highest in five years.

The S&P 500 Index rose 0.53% to close at 6664.01 points; the Nasdaq Index rose slightly by 0.52% to 22679.98 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.52% to 46190.61 points.

Nine of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose, with the consumer staples sector leading the way with a gain of 1.23%. Last week, the S&P 500 rose 1.7%, the Nasdaq rose 2.1%, and the Dow rose 1.6%.

The CBOE Volatility Index, the "fear index", fell back to 21.5 after hitting a nearly six-month high of 28.99 during the session. Wall Street's biggest www.xmmen.companies rise There were mixed declines: Tesla rose 2.5%, Apple rose nearly 2%, and Amazon fell 0.7%.

Gold Market

Gold prices fell back on Friday after hitting a record high of over $4,300 an ounce, down more than 2%, weighed down by the strength of the U.S. dollar and U.S. President Trump's tariff remarks.

Spot gold hit a record high of $4,378.69 in early trading last Friday. The weekly increase reached about 4.8%. U.S. gold futures for December delivery closed 2.1% lower at $4,213.30.

Independent metals trader TaiWong said, "I think Trump's tariff tone has become more moderate, which has reduced the popularity of precious metals trading." As a traditional uncertainty hedging tool, Gold has soared more than 64% this year. Bets on U.S. interest rate cuts also provided support for the non-yielding asset class.

The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the October meeting and again in December.

HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast by US$100 to US$3,455 per ounce, and expects it to reach US$5,000 per ounce in 2026. Meanwhile, physical gold demand in Asia remains firm even as gold prices hit new records, with premiums in India hitting a decade high ahead of the holidays.

Spot silver fell 5.6% to $51.20 an ounce after hitting a record high of $54.47. The week of the metalThe increase reached 2%. Platinum fell 6.1% to $1,607.85; palladium fell 7.9% to $1,485.50.

Oil Market

Oil prices rose slightly on Friday, but fell nearly 3% for the week after the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a growing supply glut and after U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet again to discuss Ukraine.

Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.29 per barrel, up 0.38%. U.S. crude oil futures closed at $57.54 a barrel, up 0.14%. Trump and Putin agreed last Thursday to hold another summit in Hungary within the next two weeks on the war in Ukraine.

Previously, Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement, at least temporarily ending the fighting in Gaza.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky went to the White House on Friday to push for more military support, including U.S.-made long-range Tomahawk missiles, while Washington pressured India to stop buying Russian oil.

Last week's decline was also driven in part by rising trade tensions, adding to concerns about an economic slowdown and falling energy demand. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) outlook for a supply glut through 2026 has capped crude prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels last week to 423.8 million barrels, while analysts polled by Reuters expected an increase of 288,000 barrels. The data also showed that U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.636 million barrels per day, a record high.

Foreign Markets

The U.S. dollar rose on Friday but posted weekly losses against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen last week on worries about trade tensions and jitters among some regional U.S. banks. The U.S. federal government shutdown has also hampered the release of key macroeconomic data, leaving investors with less certainty than usual about economic conditions.

Standard Chartered Bank's global head of G10 foreign exchange research Steve Englander said that there was some safe-haven selling in the U.S. dollar. In addition, news about regional banks and broader credit also suppressed the U.S. dollar to a certain extent.

The dollar fell to its weakest level against the Swiss franc in a month, while the yen erased earlier gains after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda discussed factors that could lead to a rate hike this month.

USD/CHF fell 0.08% to 0.7925, falling to its lowest level since mid-September and recording its largest weekly decline since June. Amo Sahota, director at KlarityFX in San Francisco, said, "The market's reaction to this week is that the U.S. government has been shut down for 17 days, we missed the initial jobless claims and employment data - we were flying with limited visibility, and the Fed felt that way, and then, trade tensions escalated despite Trump's attempts to calm things down. I believe this is all game theory and negotiation tactics." "

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Mussallem said on Friday that heIt may support the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the end of this month, but at the same time warns that the Fed should not go too far in reducing credit costs because inflation risks have not yet been fully resolved.

The euro fell 0.17% against the dollar to $1.16678, its largest weekly gain in nine weeks. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against six currencies, fell 0.43% last week, but rose 0.17% to 98.43 on the day.

A senior www.xmmen.committee member said last Friday that the Scheduling www.xmmen.committee of Japan’s House of Representatives has agreed to hold a parliamentary vote on October 21 to elect the next prime minister. The yen has been on the defensive since fiscal dove Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party. USD/JPY was flat at 150.49 yen in late New York trade, recording a weekly loss.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in Washington last Thursday that the central bank is still prepared to raise interest rates if the likelihood of economic growth and price forecasts increasing.

International News

Israel and Hamas continue to accuse each other

Regarding the implementation of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, Israel and Hamas are currently accusing each other. It can be said that the setbacks encountered in the implementation of the agreement have also caused concerns from the outside world. In terms of the local security situation in Gaza, the situation is still not optimistic. Hamas condemned Israel's continued attacks on Gaza, saying that since the agreement came into effect, Israel has violated the agreement 47 times, resulting in 38 deaths and 143 injuries. The Israeli army stated that it currently only deploys one division in the north and south of the Gaza Strip, but unidentified people continue to approach the Israeli defense lines in Gaza.

Israeli air strikes in the Rafah area of ​​southern Gaza

According to the Times of Israel report on October 19, the Israel Defense Forces are conducting air strikes in the Rafah area of ​​the southern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces said that on the 18th local time, several armed men emerged from a tunnel in the Rafah area and opened fire on Israeli troops, but no one was injured in the incident. Israel said the incident was apparently Hamas's latest violation of the ceasefire agreement.

India’s oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October

According to Indian media reports on the 17th, India’s oil imports from Russia picked up in the first half of October due to increased demand in India’s domestic market. Data show that in the first half of October, India imported an average of about 1.8 million barrels of oil from Russia per day, which was about 250,000 barrels more than the average daily import in September. According to US media reports on the 17th, US President Trump claimed on the 15th that Indian Prime Minister Modi had told him that India was ready to stop buying Russian oil. However, a spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it did not know the information about the contacts between Modi and Trump in recent days, nor did it know whether the Indian leader promised to stop buying Russian oil.

Large-scale protests broke out in the United States in the third week of the "shutdown"

On the 18th local time, large-scale protests broke out across the United States to express their opposition to the current government's legislation, immigrationDissatisfaction with policies on citizens, medical insurance and other aspects. The U.S. federal government is now entering its third week of "shutdown" due to a budget impasse. Under the shadow of the closure of some public institutions and the forced suspension of pay for federal employees, people's lives have been affected, and anger and dissatisfaction have further intensified. According to multiple media reports, the protests that day were held in more than 2,600 locations in 50 states across the United States, and the number of participants was expected to reach millions.

The "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government enters its 18th day, and a large number of Democratic Party projects will be frozen

The impact of the "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government is expanding. Walt, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget, revealed on social media on the 17th that due to the shutdown, a large number of infrastructure projects of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in Democratic-controlled states will be frozen, totaling US$11 billion in funds. These projects may eventually be cancelled. According to information from the White House Office of Management and Budget, these projects include the construction of San Francisco's riverfront park, the construction of the water supply and drainage system in New York City, and the expansion of multiple bridges in Massachusetts. In addition, infrastructure projects in Illinois, Maryland, New Mexico and other places have also been affected. Some media have noticed that in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, none of the above states voted for Trump. According to US media reports, the Trump administration has frozen or canceled funds for hundreds of projects across the United States since the "shutdown", totaling at least US$28 billion. These projects are mainly distributed in states and cities governed by the Democratic Party or in congressional districts where Democratic members are located, and involve clean energy development, transportation infrastructure, etc.

The Japanese government plans to increase visa application fees

According to reports, the Japanese government plans to increase visa application fees to a level www.xmmen.comparable to that of European and American countries in 2026. In view of the increase in foreign tourists visiting Japan, the Japanese government hopes to reflect the rising visa costs and rising prices in the handling fees. The move will also help alleviate the overtourism problem. The Japanese government will also explore adjusting the charging time point and consider changing the current "charge at the time of issuance" to the same "charge at the time of application" as in Europe and the United States. This move is intended to prevent tourists from other countries from submitting applications at will, so as to reduce administrative burdens.

British media: Trump is interested in Venezuela's oil, minerals and gold

According to the British "Financial Times" citing an American businessman, US President Donald Trump is interested in Venezuela's oil, minerals and gold and hopes that American www.xmmen.companies can invest in it. Trump said on Friday that Venezuelan President Maduro was prepared to make major concessions because he did not want to test U.S. patience, the American businessman revealed. The businessman was quoted as saying: "Trump needs Venezuela's oil, minerals and gold. He wants American www.xmmen.companies to invest there."

Zelensky: Trump did not explicitly refuse to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine

On the 18th local time, the Ukrainian National News Agency reported that Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed in an interview that he hoped that US President Trump would still provide "Tomahawk" cruise ships to Ukraine.missile. Zelensky said that during the meeting on October 17, Trump did not say "no" to the transfer of Tomahawk missiles, although he did not say "yes." Zelensky said, "It's a good thing that Trump didn't say 'no', but as of today he has not said 'yes'."

Domestic News

Investment silver bars are in short supply and some stores in China's "silver capital" have sold out of silver

Silver prices have continued to rise this year, with a cumulative increase of nearly 70%. Yongxing County in Chenzhou, Hunan Province is an important silver-producing area in my country, accounting for about one-quarter of the country's silver output. It is known as China's "Silver Capital". The largest silver products wholesale center in the country has been built locally. As silver prices continue to rise, most stores in Yongxing County are currently out of stock. A person in charge of a silver www.xmmen.company said: "Investment silver bars are in short supply. Before the price increase, they sold for more than 8,000 yuan, but now they sell for more than 13,000 yuan."

Many world records have been set in the past five years, saying that China's water conservancy has "gold content"

In the past five years of the "14th Five-Year Plan", my country's water conservancy construction has set many "world's best" records. In the past five years, my country has vigorously promoted the construction of water conservancy infrastructure. In 2022, the www.xmmen.completed investment in water conservancy construction reached a trillion yuan level for the first time, breaking the historical record for three consecutive years. In the past five years, our country has continuously improved its flood and drought disaster prevention system. The flood control capacity of reservoirs has reached 185.6 billion cubic meters, and embankments have protected a population of 660 million people. my country has built 95,000 reservoirs, with a total storage capacity of more than 1 trillion cubic meters, ranking first in the world in terms of reservoir type, number and number of high dams. In the past five years, our country has built a large number of water source projects, water diversion projects, and irrigation area projects. The water supply capacity of water conservancy projects reaches 900 billion cubic meters. Our country has built the rural centralized water supply system with the largest population in the world. By the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the penetration rate of tap water in rural areas across the country will reach 96%. At present, my country has formed a water conservancy infrastructure system with the largest scale, most www.xmmen.complete functions, and benefiting the largest population in the world, covering the needs of flood control, water supply, irrigation, ecology and other fields.

The number of generative artificial intelligence users in my country exceeds 500 million, and over 90% of users prefer domestic large models

China Internet Network Information Center released the "Generative Artificial Intelligence Application Development Report (2025)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") on the 18th. The "Report" shows that as of June this year, the number of generative artificial intelligence users in my country reached 515 million, with a penetration rate of 36.5%. The "Report" shows that relevant enterprises in my country are actively investing in the research and development of generative artificial intelligence technology. Domestic large-scale generative artificial intelligence models are widely favored by users and promote intelligent transformation and upgrading in various application scenarios. Over 90% of users prefer domestic large-scale models. With the rapid development of domestic generative artificial intelligence technology, related products are becoming increasingly mature and user experience has been significantly improved.

Three departments adjust value-added tax policies for wind power generation and other matters

Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement to adjust the value-added tax policies for wind power generation and other matters. According to the policy, from November 1, 2025 to December 3, 2027On the 1st, a policy of refunding 50% of the value-added tax immediately upon collection will be implemented for taxpayers selling self-produced power products using offshore wind power. For nuclear power units that have been officially put into www.xmmen.commercial operation before October 31, 2025, the relevant value-added tax regulations of the "Notice of the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation on Issues Concerning Tax Policies for the Nuclear Power Industry" will continue to be implemented; October 31, 2025 For nuclear power units that have been approved by the State Council but have not yet been officially put into www.xmmen.commercial operation, and nuclear power generation enterprises that produce and sell electric power products, within 10 years from the month following the official www.xmmen.commercial put into operation, the value-added tax shall be collected first and then refunded, and the tax refund rate shall be 50% of the tax paid into the treasury. Nuclear power units approved after November 1, 2025 will no longer implement the VAT policy of collecting first and then refunding.

The above content is all about "[XM Group]: A large number of Democratic Party projects will be frozen, trade tensions ease, gold prices fall by nearly 2%, and the US government continues to shut down". It is carefully www.xmmen.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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