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Gold price deduces the new high trend of 4200, seize the details to seize the opportunity
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: gold price 4200 new high trend deduction, seize the details to seize the opportunity." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
Spot gold fell quickly by about 0.7% after hitting a record high of 4241 during the Asian session on Thursday (October 16). However, it rebounded back to its falling position with the support of good news. It is currently trading up 0.58% near 4232, maintaining a bullish tone for the fifth consecutive trading day.
The economic risks caused by the U.S. government shutdown, escalating trade frictions and geopolitical tensions, and the release of the U.S. Economic Beige Book continue to increase the market's allocation demand for this safe-haven precious metal. In addition, expectations for the dovish policy of the Federal Reserve have further www.xmmen.compressed the downside space of this non-interest-bearing asset (gold). The following are recent events that are good for gold.
The U.S. government shutdown intensifies market uncertainty
The partial shutdown of the U.S. federal government continues to ferment and is now entering its third week, with no clear direction for resolution. On Wednesday, the temporary government appropriation bill proposed by the Republican Party failed to reach the number of votes required to pass in the ninth vote in the Senate, further exacerbating market concerns about policy uncertainty.
Investors are worried that a long-term U.S. government shutdown will directly suppress economic momentum. U.S. Treasury officials pointed out that the shutdown may cause the U.S. economy to lose $15 billion in output per week, revising Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant's previous statement and further strengthening the market's pricing of economic downside risks.
Progress in the Trade Situation
On October 10, the Ministry of Transport issued an announcement regarding countermeasures against the USTR’s imposition of port service fees on Chinese www.xmmen.companies and Chinese-made ships. The charging standards are basically consistent with the US policy. The mutual levies of port fees between China and the United States will take effect on October 14, 2025.
On the 15th, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian presided over a routinepress conference. A Kyodo News reporter asked: According to reports, U.S. President Trump accused China of deliberately stopping imports of U.S. soybeans and said that as a retaliatory measure, it would stop importing edible oil from China. What is China’s www.xmmen.comment on this?
Lin Jian said in this regard that China’s position on Sino-US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. There is no winner in a trade war and tariff war and it is not in the interest of either party. The two sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity.
The Federal Reserve has good reasons to cut interest rates
The Beige Book of Economic Conditions released by the Federal Reserve early this morning showed that U.S. economic activity has been basically flat since September and employment overall has remained stable. However, the number of www.xmmen.companies reporting layoffs has increased recently, which has intensified the market's concerns about a weakening labor market.
Affected by this, traders continue to price in "the Federal Reserve will implement two more interest rate cuts this year." This expectation directly pushed the US dollar to a more than one-week low and provided logical support for gold's further short-term rise. The current market focus turns to the speeches of core members of the Federal Open Market www.xmmen.committee (FOMC). Such remarks may continue to deepen the logic of interest rate cuts, thereby affecting spot gold prices.
At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued a clear dovish signal on Tuesday, saying that the U.S. labor market has been in a downturn of "low hiring and low firing" in September. This statement directly confirms market expectations that the Federal Reserve has a high probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its two meetings in October and December.
Geopolitical disturbances intensify
Trump revealed that he is considering providing Ukraine with longer-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, further exacerbating geopolitical tensions.
The Gaza peace talks also failed to resolve the demands of various forces. The United States announced the end of the "Gaza War", but the vague agreement may not be able to carry peace between Palestine and Israel.
Deduction of the trend after breaking through $4,200: How will gold prices develop in the future?
One of the important long-term logics supporting this round of gold predictions lies in the market’s expectations for central banks to continue to purchase gold. However, it can be seen from the recent fluctuations in gold that short-term new event stimulus may be the core driving force for the recent rapid rise in gold prices.
New clues such as intelligence, geopolitics, and tariff issues that prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more, as well as the linkage between spot gold and other precious metals and gold stocks that reflect market risk appetite, are more significantly affecting the development of gold prices.
As mentioned in previous articles, the rise of spot gold is in an accelerating stage, and it is easily affected by the risk appetite of Asian stock markets and follows the decline when stocks plummet.
Based on the above logic, we found several key points in observing gold, which is to judge market sentiment through the follow-up of related varieties and the growth rate of gold itself, and at the same time pay close attention to whether there is any new stimulating news.
The stimulus news has been listed in the previous paragraphs, and market sentiment may be moving in the opposite direction. For example, spot gold rose to a record high of 0.8% during the Asia-European session.When it reached a record high, spot silver was in the green market, and LME copper was also in the green market. At the same time, the stock prices of A-share related precious metals did not show any obvious performance. Shandong Gold even closed down 4%. This phenomenon was relatively rare before.
The funds here are hesitant to continue betting on the short-term rise of gold, or that there will be no new news and clues in the future. www.xmmen.combined with the slowdown in the decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, perhaps gold prices have already reflected most of the positive news, and there may be a risk of a correction here.
However, www.xmmen.combined with the long-term rising logic mentioned before, and the recent news that is good for gold, there is room for continued fermentation, which means that even if gold falls, it may still get better support.
Technical analysis:
The 4-hour chart of spot gold has been in the rhythm of consolidation, breakthrough and reorganization. This morning, there was a point that disrupted the rhythm. A rare www.xmmen.combination of two yang and one yin appeared. This multi-party www.xmmen.combination at a high level indicates the high point of bullish sentiment. , that is, bottom-buying funds can make quick profits, which is another evidence of the high sentiment. In other words, if bottom-buying funds can always make profits, the bottom will rise further. Therefore, as long as the spot gold price falls below the 5-day line or the low of 4200, it means that this model has failed and a reversal is about to start.
On the time-sharing chart of spot gold, the vicinity of 4217 has been repeatedly confirmed by funds. It is an important short-term turning point. If the gold price reaches this point, you need to be alert. The upward trend line will serve as an auxiliary, and the main focus will be on the support of 4217.
The daily chart of spot gold shows that the growth rate of gold prices has slowed down (the circled part is the growth rate of three intervals in three days www.xmmen.compared with the growth rate of two intervals in three days, the growth rate has slowed down), which means that the upward momentum has weakened and is currently suppressed by the upward channel.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Gold price 4200 new high trend deduction, seize the details to seize the opportunity". It is carefully www.xmmen.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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