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Euro-USD weekly review, can euro bulls make a comeback by relying on "US tariffs"?
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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Euro and US Dollar Weekly Review, can Euro bulls make a www.xmmen.comeback relying on "US tariffs"?". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (October 13) during the Asia-Europe session, the euro continued its trend and fell slightly by 0.14% against the US dollar to trade near 1.1603. Affected by concerns about U.S. tariffs, the euro rebounded by 0.5% in the previous trading day. In the first four trading days of last week, the U.S. dollar strengthened significantly, driven by risk aversion triggered by political concerns in France and Japan. The euro-dollar exchange rate overall fell to near a two-month low. However, last Friday, affected by concerns about U.S. tariffs, U.S. stocks and the U.S. dollar index fell sharply as a whole, and the euro took the opportunity to take a breather and rebound. We summarize the main events that affected the euro last week.
The French Prime Minister resigned at the speed of light, and the euro was under pressure all week
Last Monday, the market ushered in bad news from France: French Prime Minister Sebastian Lecogne announced his resignation less than 24 hours after the formation of his cabinet. France's political crisis began more than a year ago, when President Emmanuel Macron called for early parliamentary elections, saying the French government needed "a clear majority in an atmosphere of stability and harmony." However, the election ultimately resulted in a significant increase in the number of far-right MPs and a hung parliament. Months later, Macron acknowledged that the election had “brought no solutions for the French people but instead exacerbated divisions in the National Assembly.”
Lecogny is the fifth prime minister to resign after failing to push a budget through parliament to deal with France's huge debt. France's current debt scale has exceeded 3 trillion euros, accounting for approximately 114% of its gross domestic product (GDP).
Macron asked LeCorni to stay in office and try to form a coalition government, but the move ended in www.xmmen.complete failure. In fact, far-right leader Marine Le Pen has made it clear that she will blockto thwart any action by the new government and call for another snap election. The news had a negative impact on the euro.
Japan’s leadership change boosted demand for the U.S. dollar, while the appreciation of the U.S. dollar suppressed the euro
At the same time, news from Japan unexpectedly boosted U.S. dollar demand. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) elected 64-year-old lawmaker Sanae Takaichi as its leader, which means she is expected to become Japan's first female prime minister. The news weighed heavily on the Japanese yen, with the U.S. dollar/yen currency pair gapping up about 300 points at the opening of the week, which in turn led to an overall strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The yen fell sharply on expectations that Sanae would promise to expand federal spending and implement looser monetary policy.
However, Sanae Takaichi's prospects for the premiership changed after the collapse of Japan's ruling coalition on Friday. The Liberal Democratic Party has the most seats in parliament, but does not reach an absolute majority. In the past 26 years, the Liberal Democratic Party has been forming a coalition government with the Komeito Party. The leader of the Komeito Party, Saito Tetsuo, said that the Liberal Democratic Party failed to give a sufficient explanation for the political funding issue, and the alliance between the two parties ended. Affected by this news, the Japanese yen rebounded slightly. Later, during the New York session, U.S. stocks fell sharply due to concerns about U.S. tariffs, and the U.S. dollar index retreated. As of the weekend, the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen was still up about 400 points.
Affected by many factors, the U.S. dollar index first rose and then fell last week
The U.S. government shutdown that started on October 1 is still continuing. Throughout the week, the Senate held multiple votes on the appropriations bill, but failed to reach consensus. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the federal government could face massive layoffs, blaming Democrats. Before Thursday, the performance of financial markets during the U.S. government shutdown was relatively stable, but the failure of the latest round of votes in Congress on Thursday triggered market panic and pushed the U.S. dollar sharply higher.
However, the U.S. dollar and U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday due to concerns about U.S. tariffs, but the U.S. dollar index still recorded gains overall during the week.
At the same time, the US Federal Open Market www.xmmen.committee (FOMC) released the minutes of its September meeting. The dollar briefly pulled back after the minutes showed policymakers were divided on next steps. Among the 19 members, 10 (a slim majority) supported two more interest rate cuts before the end of the year; in view of the weakening labor market, the decision to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) was almost unanimous.
The minutes further stated: "Members expressed different views on the restrictiveness of the current monetary policy stance and the future policy path. Most members believe that further easing policy may be appropriate during the remainder of this year."
The signal significance of data and missing data
Affected by the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. macroeconomic data calendar is basically blank. In addition to the FOMC meeting minutes, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index released on Friday in the United States fell slightly to 55 from 55.1 in September, but was still better than market expectations of 54.2. The report also showed that the one-year consumer inflation forecast fell to 4.6% from 4.7% in September, and the five-year consumer inflation forecast fell to 4.6% from 4.7% in September.Inflation expectations remain unchanged at 3.7%. As mentioned in previous articles, dense big data is often better than the actual situation.
In the Eurozone, retail sales increased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, in line with market expectations; German factory orders fell by 0.8% in August, which was better than -2.7% in July, but less than the expected value of 1.4%; the country's industrial output also fell by 4.3% in August, which was significantly worse than the 1.3% increase in July.
In addition to economic data, the macroeconomic agenda also includes speeches from several policymakers. Last Monday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde testified before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Affairs www.xmmen.committee that the European Central Bank had achieved its inflation cooling target and once again emphasized that the central bank was "in a favorable position." But her optimistic statements failed to offset the current market downturn.
In the next few days, Germany will announce the final value of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) in September and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in October; the Eurozone economic calendar lacks key data, and industrial output in August and the trade balance in the same period will be the most watched indicators.
The United States needs to pay attention to a key risk point: if the federal government continues to be shut down, most important economic data will not be released, and the Federal Reserve may not be able to make a decision on interest rate changes due to insufficient data
The lack of fresh data is one of the core reasons for the recent strengthening of the US dollar due to risk aversion - investors are increasingly worried that the information gap may interfere with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision in October. The original macroeconomic calendar was supposed to include consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), retail sales data and weekly unemployment data, but these data cannot be released normally unless the U.S. Senate reaches an agreement on an appropriation bill to restart the government.
It is worth noting that on October 15, the US government needs to pay salaries to military personnel (military personnel shoulder core national security responsibilities and are still performing their duties normally). Relevant legislation needs to be passed before Monday to ensure timely payment of wages, and judging from the current situation, the possibility of this happening is low. The United States has always regarded supporting the military as its core value, so it is not entirely impossible that there will be news related to some appropriations bills for salary payments over the weekend.
Technical Analysis of EURUSD
As mentioned before, 1.1600 is the key price. Last Friday, the euro exchange rate rebounded sharply and finally closed slightly above 1.1600. The bulls took action, but the 5, 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages all turned towards the Below, MACD and KDJ also suggest that bears are still dominant, so the short trend and the bulls who rebounded sharply last Friday are likely to continue to see each other around 1.1600-1.1500. The exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around this area, waiting for the moving average to get closer, and then choose a direction.
It is worth noting that the U.S. stock market and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield have rebounded sharply before the market opened, showing that the market's concerns about U.S. tariffs have partially eased, and the U.S. dollar may continue to maintain an upward trend due to the weak trend of the euro.
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