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The short-term rebound of the US dollar cannot change the long-term pressure, and the game of tariff risks and reserve currency status

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The short-term rebound of the US dollar is difficult to change the long-term pressure, the game between tariff risks and reserve currency status". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:

From our trading perspective, the US dollar may still be in an overvalued range, and its fundamental support is gradually weakening. Of the 33 currencies covered by our valuation model, only 9 are valued at a higher level than the US dollar. As the advantage of "exceptionalism" in the U.S. economy gradually fades, the U.S. dollar's "dividend window" may be www.xmmen.coming to an end, and it is likely to enter a depreciation cycle in the next few years.

The shrinking scale of foreign capital inflows, capital outflows caused by hedging needs, continued debt pressure, and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve's policy all point to a more challenging operating environment for the U.S. dollar.

However, it needs to be clear that the US dollar’s status as the world’s core reserve currency is still deeply entrenched. A short-term impact on its dominant position may weaken its safe-haven properties, but www.xmmen.compared with the deep structural changes required for the global economy to switch to other core reserve assets, the actual impact of such risks is still relatively limited.

High debt and current account deficit have doubled the reliance on overseas financing

From a fiscal perspective, the United States currently has no feasible budget balancing plan, and the government debt/GDP ratio is likely to continue to rise. The only buffering factor is that the current debt repayment ratio of U.S. households and businesses is still lower than the long-term average (representing the proportion of income used to cover debt principal and interest, the lower the ratio, the stronger the debt repayment ability), which provides a certain buffer space for short-term financial system pressure, but fiscal vulnerabilities are continuing to accumulate.

At the external balance level, the U.S. current account deficit continues to expand as a proportion of GDP, highlighting the U.S. economy's dependence on external capital. This is in sharp contrast to economies such as Germany and Japan that have maintained current account surpluses for a long time. In addition, the United States holds a large negative net international investment position, further confirming its high dependence on overseas financing.

Changes in the attractiveness of U.S. assets bring capital flow risks

In terms of foreign capital holdings, foreign investors currently hold approximately US$18 trillion in US stock assets (accounting for approximately 20% of the total market size) and US$7 trillion in US Treasury bonds (accounting for approximately 25% of the total market size).

The slowdown in U.S. economic growth, the weakening of the relative advantage of the stock market, and rising fiscal concerns may weaken the attractiveness of U.S. assets, leading to a decrease in portfolio investment inflows, or even triggering capital outflows. Recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have clearly shown that the stock asset reallocation behavior of foreign investors is directly affecting exchange rate trends, and there are still a large number of positions in the U.S. asset pool facing rebalancing risks.

The loosening of the hegemony of the US dollar and the trend of currency diversification

In terms of international status, although the US dollar still dominates the global financial system, the stability of its hegemony has declined significantly www.xmmen.compared with the past. Although there is no immediate threat to the reserve currency status, the trend of currency diversification has substantially started. Central banks of various countries are steadily increasing their gold reserve holdings (according to the IMF's 2025 semi-annual report, in the first half of 2025, the gold reserve holdings of emerging market central banks increased by 23% year-on-year, with the central banks of India and Brazil leading the list). This action essentially reflects the market's pricing of the fiscal sustainability of the United States and the risk of potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar.

However, it should be noted that gold cannot www.xmmen.completely replace the function of the US dollar - it does not generate income and is not practical enough in global trade settlement and financial transactions. At the same time, there is currently no www.xmmen.competitive alternative reserve currency in the world. Although the transition to a multi-currency reserve system is feasible, the process will be extremely slow.

Currently, 9 out of 10 foreign exchange transactions in the world involve the US dollar. The US dollar accounts for about 50% of global trade settlements and nearly 60% of official foreign exchange reserves. It has irreplaceable market depth and liquidity advantages.

The credibility of the central bank weakens the safe-haven attribute of the US dollar

Based on historical market patterns, the US dollar usually plays the role of a core hedging tool during stock market corrections. However, in April this year, it was rare for the US dollar to fall sharply at the same time as the stock market. This was due to the resonance of multiple factors such as the fermentation of tariff risks, declining confidence in the credibility of US institutions, and liquidity-driven margin calls. Still, rising deficits, increasing political polarization and a highly leveraged financial system could weaken the dollar's safe-haven reliability in future crises.

In terms of the credibility of the central bank, against the background of soaring inflation after the COVID-19 epidemic, the Federal Reserve has shown clear determination to fight inflation—aggressively raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet of nearly US$2 trillion, without causing a substantial impact on the labor market. The current inflation expectations remain anchored, further strengthening the Fed's policy credibility. However, on July 16 this year, news that Powell might be dismissed triggered violent market fluctuations: the U.S. dollar index fell about 1.2% at midday that day, directly ending the previous nine consecutive gains.

Political intervention has become a new risk point for the US dollar. The Trump administration has pressured the Federal Reserve to demand deeper interest rate cuts and even attempted to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook - an unprecedented move that essentially highlighted the risk of the Fed's policy independence being www.xmmen.compromised. Although existing institutional safeguards still maintain the Fed's decision-making autonomy, market concerns about "fiscal dominance" (that is, monetary policy www.xmmen.compromises with government financing needs) may gradually weaken investor confidence in U.S. dollar assets.

The tariff geo-crisis provides more scenarios for the US dollar to be impacted

At the level of geo-risk, geopolitics has become one of the core driving factors affecting the fluctuations of the US dollar exchange rate. Tariff policy announcements have directly reshaped market expectations for economic growth and inflation, and the United States is more vulnerable to the impact of such policies than other economies.

The U.S. trade war with the world is still the biggest attraction. The U.S. president continues to exert pressure but does not implement it and even created a special TACO trading strategy (TrumpAlwaysChickensOut). The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also constantly creating uncertainty, which will affect the credit of the U.S. dollar. Last Friday, the United States was again involved in the tariff crisis. Affected by concerns about U.S. tariffs, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. stock markets fell simultaneously.

At the same time, the previous meeting between Trump and Putin has attracted widespread market attention. Although the prospect of dialogue may help ease local tensions, any scenario that leads to the United States being more directly involved in the conflict will bring significant downside risks to the US dollar - especially in the context of weakened investor confidence in US institutions.

Summary:

The dollar's losses so far have been limited as most appear to expect the two sides in the tariff row to reach another deal, but there are risks of rising tensions, www.xmmen.commerzbank's ThuLan Nguyen said in a research note. It seems higher, and if countries decide to distance themselves from the United States and strengthen ties with other trading partners, the United States may become increasingly isolated

But the dollar remains the cornerstone of the global financial system, relying on unrivaled liquidity, deep capital markets, and broad market trust. However, as traders, we need to be clear that this kind of resilience does not mean "invulnerable". The current valuation of the US dollar is still at a high level, and the structural factors that have long supported the US economic and financial dominance are continuing to weaken.

Looking to the next few years, as fiscal pressure intensifies, economic growth momentum slows down, and currency diversification accelerates, the U.S. dollar is likely to gradually enter a depreciation channel. But it is worth noting that this does not mean that the US dollar will lose its reserve currency status soon. The US dollar index is still rebounding and is brewing.

But it does remind investors that they need to prepare for the market environment of "weakening of the dollar exception".

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The short-term rebound of the US dollar is difficult to change the long-term pressure, the game between tariff risks and reserve currency status". It was carefully www.xmmen.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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