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The US dollar/JPY tends to rise, and the trend is subject to the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar/Japanese yen is biased towards upward, and the trend is subject to the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Monday (August 25), the US dollar/Japanese yen showed a trend of rising first, then fluctuating and then rebounding. There was a significant upward trend in the early trading and entered a subsequent volatility stage. The short-term trend is rebounding, and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the previous high and continue the upward trend.

The market's pricing of the Fed's interest rate cut is still the core factor driving the US dollar/JPY trend. The speeches of Federal Reserve officials, economic data and future members of the Federal Open Market www.xmmen.committee (FOMC) have become the focus of traders this week. From the perspective of both fundamentals and technical aspects, the downward risk of the US dollar/JPY has increased after Jerome Powell delivered a dovish speech at the Jackson Hall meeting last Friday. At present, the "burden of proof" of whether to cut interest rates in September has turned to data - the data needs to prove that "no interest rate cuts are required", rather than the previous "provement should be proof that interest rate cuts should be reduced".

Powell's stance shift triggered dovish repricing

According to changes in the U.S. interest rate curve in the past month, the largest adjustment occurred at two time points: after the July non-farm employment report was released on August 1, and after Powell's speech last Friday. Coincidentally, these two time points were also the moment when the US dollar/Japanese yen fluctuated the most in a single-day period.

The strong correlation between the US dollar/JPY and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pricing indicates that any factor that may significantly change the expectations of interest rate cuts this week may have an important impact on the US dollar/JPY trend.

The data risks are limited

From the economic calendars of the United States and Japan, although the data is released this week, few data have the potential to cause large market fluctuations - even if the core inflation indicator "Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Deflation Index" favored by the Federal Reserve will be announced on Friday.

Now, data analysts can accurately predict PCE trends through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) released earlier that month. Therefore, PCE data rarely has "unexpected market conditions", and its importance in risk events has declined. If there is any type of data this week that is more critical, it is the resident income and consumption data released with the core PCE - given the market's doubts on the fundamental health of the U.S. labor market, the impact of these data on the Fed's interest rate outlook is more prominent. After all, consumption is the biggest www.xmmen.component of the U.S. economy, and income growth is the “fuel” of consumption.

In addition to the above data, the number of initial unemployment claims and the second-quarter GDP correction released on Thursday may also become the catalyst for U.S. data that triggers market volatility. Although there are two-year, five-year and seven-year Treasury bond auctions this week, the Fed's expected dovish turn may provide solid support for Treasury bond demand, and its suppression of the dollar may be limited even if there are signs of weakening demand.

For traders, Japan's economic data is much less important than U.S. data, but the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Friday significantly changes market expectations for the Bank of Japan's rate hikes by the end of the year, which may trigger volatility. Other Japanese data have limited impact on the direction of USD/JPY. In addition, the speech by Nakagawa, a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Japan, may provide the market with more clues about the possibility of interest rate hikes before the end of the year.

Focus on FOMC membership www.xmmen.composition

In the calendar of speeches by Fed officials, traders will focus on FOMC members Collins, Williams and Waller—three of them have monetary policy voting rights this year.

Although not included in any official calendar, the most important catalyst for the impact of U.S. interest rates this week is perhaps Trump's continued accusation of Fed Director Lisa Cook of mortgage fraud and launched an attack on it. At present, three Fed directors have supported Trump's proposal of "fast and substantial interest rate cuts". If Cook leaves, Trump will win a majority in the Fed Council - which will not only significantly increase the possibility of a large-scale interest rate cut this year, but will also allow him to further affect the entire FOMC membership www.xmmen.composition by appointing regional Fed chairs. If Cook is replaced, the dollar is likely to weaken.

Technical analysis: Maintain range fluctuations, and the overall trend is still on the rise

The US dollar/JPY fell last Friday, but was supported by the clouds currently spanning the 145.65-146.71 area. The long lower shadow line on the K-line chart on August 14 showed that the downward trend was blocked, which means that the overall trend is still biased towards upward. If the daily closing price is higher than the current baseline at 148.39, it will boost the bulls and increase the chance of testing the 150 psychological mark.

The level below 147.00 this Monday is againAttract buying to enter the market. Throughout August, the US dollar/JPY has fallen below this level 10 times, but none of them have been able to break through. Unless the exchange rate closes below 147.00 (and the 50-day moving average below it is also broken), the range remains a solid area for traders to consider establishing long positions.

The upward direction needs to be focused on the 148.80, 150 marks and the 200-day moving average - given the range oscillation of the exchange rate in August, these levels are both the potential targets for the bulls and may also become the entry point for the bears. For most of this month, the US dollar/JPY has been trapped in the narrow range of the "two integer marks"; if this range is broken, the lower support levels are 146.00 and 144.42 in turn, and the upper resistance levels are 151.00 and 152.40. Unless there is a major catalyst to change Fed policy pricing, these levels may be difficult to reach this week.

From the momentum indicator, the 14th-day relative strength index (RSI) and MACD (index smooth moving average line similarities and differences) are both in the neutral range, which further highlights the guiding significance of price trends and fundamental catalysts for trading decisions.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar/JPY tends to rise, and the trend is subject to the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut." It was carefully www.xmmen.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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The US dollar/JPY tends to rise, and the trend is subject to the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts

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