Powell's remarks ignited the market, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on August 25

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.18%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.31%. The German DAX index fell 0.25%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.13%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.65%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.44%.

2. Interpretation of market news

Powell's remarks ignited the market! Wall Street bets on a rate cut in September

⑴ After Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made dovish remarks at the Jackson Hall meeting, many large brokerages have advanced their rate cut forecasts to September. ⑵Powell emphasized labor market risks and said that the Federal Reserve must take into account the dual goals of employment and inflation when formulating monetary policies. ⑶ According to data www.xmmen.compiled by LSEG, traders have priced the cumulative interest rate cut at the end of this year to 52.3 basis points, while the CMEFedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis points cut in September is as high as 83.3%. ⑷ Several institutions, including Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas and Barclays, will advance the time point of interest rate cuts, and most institutions predict that there will be two or three interest rate cuts this year. ⑸ Despite this, some institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Global Research have maintained their forecast of not cutting interest rates this year. ⑹The change in the prospects for interest rate cuts reflects the significant adjustments in the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Hungarian Central Bank Governor: The engine of global economic growth has moved eastward

On the 25th local time, Hungarian Central Bank Governor Mikhai Valga in BundesligaAt the opening ceremony of the 2025 Asian Financial Cooperation Association (AFCA) Financial Summit Forum held in Dapest, it said that at the turn of the century, Asia accounted for 26% of the world's GDP, and by 2024 this proportion rose to 46%, while Europe's share fell from 30% to 21% during the same period. Asia currently accounts for half of global exports and investment, and the future growth engine has shifted eastward. Hungary hopes to become an important promoter of economic and financial cooperation between the East and the West and become an economic gateway from Europe to Asia.

Building permit data is revised! The U.S. real estate market has improved slightly

⑴ The U.S. Department of www.xmmen.commerce has revised the July building permit data. ⑵After the correction, the month-on-month decline in building permits narrowed from -2.8% to -2.2%, and the total annualized number also increased from 1.354 million units to 1.362 million units. ⑶ Among all types of licenses, the annualized licenses for single-family residential houses have been repaired from 870,000 units to 875,000 units, and the number of licenses for multi-family residential houses has been repaired from 484,000 units to 487,000 units. ⑷ From a regional perspective, the monthly decline in building permits in the southern region narrowed from -4.6% to -4.3%, and the decline in the western region also revised up from -10.1% to -7.7%. ⑸ Permits in the central and western regions were revised up from 0.5% month-on-month growth to 1.4%, while the month-on-month growth rate in the northeast region was revised down from 25.2% to 21.4%. ⑹Although the overall number of building permits is still on a downward trend, the revised data shows that the market has performed better than initially expected.

South Korea has seen more than 4,000 patients due to high temperature discomfort this summer

The South Korean Disease Management Department said on the 25th that more than 4,000 people have visited the doctors in South Korea this summer due to high temperature diseases, the largest number since 2018. Since the beginning of this year, 26 people have died from high temperature-related diseases. Data from the South Korean Department of Disease Management shows that as of the 24th, the cumulative number of cases of high temperature discomfort reached 4,048, an increase of 55 from the previous day. The previous record was 4,526 people in 2018.

The alarm sounds! Consumers with high credit ratings in the United States begin to default on repayments

⑴ A report by credit scoring www.xmmen.company VantageScore shows that American consumers with the highest credit score are beginning to experience debt overdue, indicating that the financial health of Americans may be deteriorating more widely. ⑵ Data shows that overdue repayments for super-grade credit customers over 90 days surged by 109% year-on-year, while the year-on-year growth rate of superior customers was as high as 47%. ⑶ Although the growth in the number of overdues is still moderate in terms of absolute value, this shows that even consumers with the most stable financial situation are beginning to feel the pressure of repayment. ⑷In addition, the late-term overdue rates of auto loans and mortgages have also risen, as consumers are facing a tight budget. ⑸ The report also pointed out that consumers have become more sensitive to prices due to concerns about rising prices caused by Trump's tariff rhetoric, which led to a weakening of the consumer confidence index in August.

Long-term bond yields resumed their upward trend, and the European market and the Federal Reserve parted ways

⑴European bond yields resumed rising on Monday, reversing the decline last weekend caused by the Federal Reserve's possible rate cut. ⑵ German 10-year government bond yield, as the euro zone benchmark, rose 5 basis points to 2.77%, approaching the nearly five-month high reached last week 2.787%. ⑶ German 30-year government bond yield rose nearly 6 basis points to 3.36%, close to the 14-year high set last week. ⑷ Although Fed Chairman Powell's speech once aroused market optimism, the market reassessed its impact on Europe, and the remarks of ECB officials suggest interest rates may remain unchanged for a longer period of time. ⑸ In addition, the German business prosperity index released on Monday unexpectedly rose to a 15-month high, further supporting the rise in yields and reducing the pressure on the ECB to cut interest rates again. ⑹The yield on Italy's 10-year government bonds is basically consistent with the trend of German government bonds, rising nearly 6 basis points to 3.61%.

Big! Swiss Post suspends shipping to the United States because the United States cancels the $800 tax exemption

⑴ Due to the implementation of new customs regulations by the U.S. government, Swiss Post announced that it will suspend all cargo transportation business sent to the United States from August 26. ⑵ Swiss Post's statement pointed out that the United States has decided to cancel the current $800 tax exemption policy for imported goods starting from August 29, which means that all goods must be declared to the US Customs and www.xmmen.completed customs clearance procedures. ⑶ In addition, the new regulations require that all goods entering the United States must be transported by customs prepayment, which is significantly different from the original rules of the Universal Postal Union. ⑷In view of the above new regulations, Swiss Post, like other postal www.xmmen.companies, is forced to temporarily stop related business. ⑸ This decision was made after close consultation with the federal Ministry of Environment, Transport, Energy and www.xmmen.communications and other national authorities.

Demand shift! Indian buyers return to Russian crude oil, and Middle East crude oil fell to a two-month low

⑴ After Indian buyers resumed purchasing Russian crude oil last week, the benchmark prices of Middle East crude oil were under pressure, with spot premiums for Oman and Dubai crude oils falling to their lowest level in about two months. ⑵ Data shows that the premium of cash Dubai crude oil to swaps fell 15 cents to $2.09 a barrel. ⑶ Previously, some buyers increased their purchases of Middle East crude oil due to market concerns, which once pushed up crude oil prices in the region. ⑷In terms of relevant news, Indian government data showed that the country's crude oil imports fell 8.7% month-on-month to 18.56 million tons in July, the lowest level since February 2024. ⑸ In addition, the Iraqi Prime Minister's Office announced that the country's refining capacity has increased from 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024 to 1.3 million barrels. ⑹It is also reported that although Ukraine's drone attack caused a fire in an important fuel export terminal in Russia, Kazakhstan's oil exports through the port were not interrupted.

The battle for talent on Wall Street begins again! Recovery in transactions stimulates banker recruitment tide

⑴ Wall Street Bank has recently significantly increased the recruitment of senior bankers to cope with mergers and acquisitions and initial public offerings in the context of a better economic situation (IPO) trading rebounded. ⑵ Previously, due to market concerns about trade policies, mergers and acquisitions and IPO activities were once deserted, disrupting this year's recruitment season. ⑶JP Morgan Chase recruited more than 300 bankers from January to April and appointed new global chairs of investment banks. Citigroup and UBS Group have also actively recruited senior management personnel. ⑷ Financial headhunting www.xmmen.company data shows that in the week ending August 13, the news of investment banks actively recruiting assistant and vice president positions surged by 200%, reversing the situation of a 30% year-on-year decline in junior positions in the first half of this year. ⑸ Boutique investment banks are also optimistic. Evercore acquired British boutique investment banks, increasing its number of bankers in Europe, the Middle East and Africa to more than 400, and Lazade also recruited 14 managing directors. ⑹Salary consulting firm noted that despite recent improvements in recruitment, it is still below the level of past active years, and banks are forming teams for next year because the previously set 20% revenue growth target is difficult to achieve.

The optimism of the German corporate confidence index against the wind

⑴ Despite facing adverse economic prospects, the German corporate confidence index continued to rise this month. ⑵The source of this optimism is not clear, as the index's rise contrasts with the bleak data released last week when Germany's second-quarter contraction exceeded expectations. ⑶Brzeski believes that in the face of Trump's tariff remarks and uncertain export prospects, the hopes of German www.xmmen.companies may be mainly based on the government's future www.xmmen.commitment to large-scale defense and infrastructure fiscal investment. ⑷Brzeski said the index shows that German www.xmmen.companies have "extraordinary optimism" that fiscal stimulus can cure the economy. ⑸ This optimism reflects that the market has high expectations for the government-led economic recovery path.

The German Treasury bond auction remains hot, and the yield fluctuates show market signals

⑴ The latest data released by the German Federal Bank shows that Germany has successfully issued 12-month treasury bonds (Bubills), and the market subscription popularity remains strong. ⑵In a new issuance, Germany sold 1.6 billion euros of 12-month Treasury bonds, with an average yield of 1.839%, a decrease from the previous 1.895%, and the subscription multiple rose from 2.1 to 2.2. ⑶ Another additional issuance of 2.19 billion euros of 12-month Treasury bonds, with an average yield of 1.913%, slightly higher than the previous level of 1.895%, but the subscription multiple also remained at 2.2. ⑷ Although the average yield trends of the two auctions have differentiated, the stability and improvement of subscription multiples show that investors' demand for German short-term government bonds is still strong against the backdrop of global interest rate cuts. ⑸ While the market is digesting the potential policy shift of the Federal Reserve, it also closely monitors the flow of funds within the euro zone. German bonds are still attractive as safe-haven assets.

3. The trend of major currency pairs before the New York Stock Exchange

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1695, a drop of 0.24%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after testing the key resistance level of 1.1730, the euro-dollar price fell in the latest trading day, and the stability of the resistance allowed the price to try to get out of the apparent overbought state of (RSI), especially when negative signals appear there, with dynamic support from maintaining track enthusiasm, trading above the EMA50, which was dominated by bullish correction trends on a short-term basis.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3505, a drop of 0.15%. Before New York, (GBPUSD) prices fell on the last trading day to collect the gains from their previous rises in an attempt to transfer the apparent overbought situation to (RSI), from which negative signals appear, collecting positive forces that may help it recover and rise again to break through the current 1.3500 resistance and exceed the negative pressure of the EMA50 to announce its recovery and open the way for realizing mor gains.

Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3368.44, a drop of 0.10%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price rose in the last intraday trading, ready to attack the current resistance at $3375, supported by its trading above the EMA50 and affected by a short-term breakthrough of a small bearish trend, strengthening the stability of the recent bullish momentum. On the other hand, we noticed a negative signal on the (RSI) that, after reaching the overbought level, reduced the final gains due to the need to unload some overbought conditions.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 38.672, a drop of 0.55%. Before the New York market, the (silver) price fell on the last trading day, trying to get the previous rise to gain positive momentum that could help its recovery and start a strong bull market and unload its overbought conditions on (RSI), especially as negative signals from there, the main bullish trend dominated, with its trading following a small supportive slash of the trend, and in addition, positive pressure from trading above the EMA50 continues to exist, strengthening the stability of the positive scenario.

Crude Oil Market: As of NorthAt 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 64.030, an increase of 0.58%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) prices rose on the last trading day, surpassing the key resistance level of $63.75, supported by its ongoing trading above the EMA50, and (RSI) there was a positive signal that opened the way to achieve more profits after the price successfully unloaded its overbought conditions, which was due to the impact of a positive technology formation (double bottom mode) on a short-term basis, providing more stability for the positive scenario.

4. Institutional View

Netherlands International: Expectations of interest rate cuts have heated up! The euro may be aimed at 1.20 at the end of the year

⑴ Padhraic Garvey, strategist at Dutch International Group (ING), pointed out that if the Federal Reserve chooses to cut interest rates continuously, the euro-dollar exchange rate is expected to rise to 1.20 by the end of 2025. ⑵Federal Chairman Powell's speech last Friday has opened the door to a rate cut in September, saying "changing risks may require policy adjustments." ⑶ Data shows that the US currency market currently expects the possibility of interest rate cuts in September as high as 84%, and has www.xmmen.completely digested the two 25 basis point cuts this year. ⑷ Although the euro fell against the dollar on Monday, it hit a nearly four-week high of 1.1742 last Friday. ING expects the euro to reach 1.17 at the end of the quarter and continues to strengthen as further rate cuts heat up.

The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: Powell's remarks ignited the market, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on August 25" was carefully www.xmmen.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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